I still think this will be the big deciding factor.
Let’s put it this way: this is the only factor capable of bringing the war to a halt in the near future.
As for the situation on the ground, we are witnessing yet another spiral of escalation. The stakes are rising—particularly in the wake of the recent Ukrainian strike on a student dormitory in the Luhansk region. Eighteen teenagers—both boys and girls—were pulled from the rubble. Retaliation now lies ahead…
It is as if even nature itself is serving as a reminder of this; right now, the sky above us looks like this.
You saw how even Kid Starver tried to roll back sanctions on Russian energy
As far as I know, the sanctions against Russia have already been lifted for another month.
We know perfectly well that they have no other choice; they will go all the way.
The “end” comes when popular unrest boils over. For now, Europe has the situation under control.
I believe that if a fuel crisis does strike Europe, it will happen in August or September—precisely when vast quantities of fuel are needed to power machinery during the harvest season. I’ve already observed that farmers there are facing significant difficulties even without this added burden. We have witnessed farmer protests in various European countries on numerous occasions. I suspect that this sector will serve as the primary driving force behind future protests, eventually joined by workers from other industries affected by the fuel crisis. However, this scenario will only unfold if Europe fails to stabilize the situation in the fuel market. Protests of this magnitude require extremely compelling grounds.
If I were to post this on Reddit, I’d be banned instantly. I am not advocating for protests; rather, I am attempting to visualize the scenario—to imagine how such events might be triggered. I’ve imagined how it might start; as for how it might end—that, too, is conceivable: it will all culminate in Hungary and Slovakia becoming the wealthiest nations in Europe, as refugees from Brussels, London, and Paris come flocking to their borders… ))) And those with a bit more daring might head to Russia—to work on construction sites… ))) I’m only joking about that last part, of course; I certainly don’t mean to offend anyone…
Moreover, nothing is predetermined yet; the ultimate outcome of this unfolding drama remains shrouded in deep uncertainty.
Agree with all that, the harvest season is going to be when the fuel demand spikes, and that’s also when the reserves are projected to be depleted. So, that could be the crisis moment. And from what I saw there was another Oreshnik strike last night, but I don’t think it really has the same effect at this point. Yes, a bunch of stuff in Kiev is burning now, but it’s not really going to change anything. I’m now convinced that economy will be the deciding factor in the end. Speaking of that, did you see how European Commission put out a report saying that Russian GDP growth for 2026 is expected at 1.3%, and EU was lowered to 1.1%.
If they’re saying this openly, I’m guessing the real situation is a lot worse then they’re letting on. We’ll see if they manage to pull a rabbit out of a hat to solve the fuel crisis, but I just don’t see where the fuel is going to come from. And Europe now competes with Asia for whatever fuel is on the market too. So, next few months will be very interesting.
Let’s put it this way: this is the only factor capable of bringing the war to a halt in the near future.
As for the situation on the ground, we are witnessing yet another spiral of escalation. The stakes are rising—particularly in the wake of the recent Ukrainian strike on a student dormitory in the Luhansk region. Eighteen teenagers—both boys and girls—were pulled from the rubble. Retaliation now lies ahead…
It is as if even nature itself is serving as a reminder of this; right now, the sky above us looks like this.
As far as I know, the sanctions against Russia have already been lifted for another month.
Maybe that’s not what I’m talking about.
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-treasury-extend-sanction-waiver-russian-seaborne-oil-source-says-2026-05-18/
We know perfectly well that they have no other choice; they will go all the way.
The “end” comes when popular unrest boils over. For now, Europe has the situation under control.
I believe that if a fuel crisis does strike Europe, it will happen in August or September—precisely when vast quantities of fuel are needed to power machinery during the harvest season. I’ve already observed that farmers there are facing significant difficulties even without this added burden. We have witnessed farmer protests in various European countries on numerous occasions. I suspect that this sector will serve as the primary driving force behind future protests, eventually joined by workers from other industries affected by the fuel crisis. However, this scenario will only unfold if Europe fails to stabilize the situation in the fuel market. Protests of this magnitude require extremely compelling grounds.
If I were to post this on Reddit, I’d be banned instantly. I am not advocating for protests; rather, I am attempting to visualize the scenario—to imagine how such events might be triggered. I’ve imagined how it might start; as for how it might end—that, too, is conceivable: it will all culminate in Hungary and Slovakia becoming the wealthiest nations in Europe, as refugees from Brussels, London, and Paris come flocking to their borders… ))) And those with a bit more daring might head to Russia—to work on construction sites… ))) I’m only joking about that last part, of course; I certainly don’t mean to offend anyone…
Moreover, nothing is predetermined yet; the ultimate outcome of this unfolding drama remains shrouded in deep uncertainty.
Agree with all that, the harvest season is going to be when the fuel demand spikes, and that’s also when the reserves are projected to be depleted. So, that could be the crisis moment. And from what I saw there was another Oreshnik strike last night, but I don’t think it really has the same effect at this point. Yes, a bunch of stuff in Kiev is burning now, but it’s not really going to change anything. I’m now convinced that economy will be the deciding factor in the end. Speaking of that, did you see how European Commission put out a report saying that Russian GDP growth for 2026 is expected at 1.3%, and EU was lowered to 1.1%.
If they’re saying this openly, I’m guessing the real situation is a lot worse then they’re letting on. We’ll see if they manage to pull a rabbit out of a hat to solve the fuel crisis, but I just don’t see where the fuel is going to come from. And Europe now competes with Asia for whatever fuel is on the market too. So, next few months will be very interesting.