Hilton, a Fox News commentator, leads the pack with 19 percent of likely voters in the latest UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research-POLITICO poll. Behind him is a pile-up of virtually tied candidates — Democrat Tom Steyer at 13 percent and, with 11 percent each, Democrats Katie Porter and Eric Swalwell and Republican Chad Bianco.
Porter’s the only good option…
But Cali’s primary system means only top two advance, so it’s likely to be Hilton and Steyer, so no matter who wins, the people of Cali lose. Just a question of how badly they lose.
Steyer and Swalwell won’t drop, they’d rather two Republicans make it than a single progressive.
I want Porter too becauseai want a positive candidate.
I’m leery about Steyer as a second choice because I don’t trust billionaires.
Swallwell, all I know about him is trying to hold Republicans accountable, which was needed and justified, but does he have any policy goals?
Their numbers improve among Democratic voters, with Porter ranking highest with 55 percent viewing her favorably. All three are viewed more unfavorably than favorably with independents, with Swalwell earning the lowest marks with 12 percent favorable and 26 percent unfavorable.
The numbers in the above quote aren’t in the linked document, so it’s impossible to tell how those numbers fall for the other leading candidates. They might be a statistical tie.
“Top 2 advance” needs to change. It should be top 3 or 60% of the votes, or something like that. Or ranked choice. According to that poll, top 2 isn’t even 40%. Our voting system sucks.
An interesting dissection of support.
Hilton is consolidating support among Republicans, with only 7 percent undecided among R voters.
Porter is popular with the base, but polarizing, and low on Democratic insider support.
Swallwell is the insider pick.
Steyer’s insider support is somewhere in between Swallwell and Porter.
But with the D leadiing candidates, the differences among general support are all within the margin of error of +/- 3.3%
I’m not sure where the article is getting Porter’s D base support numbers from because they aren’t in the linked poll document https://www.politico.com/f/?id=0000019c-d9e2-dd96-a9be-ddfa65c50000
