• UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
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    4 hours ago

    The president has historically been a factor. Trump’s broken with the trend, typically running several points ahead of the party as a whole.

    After three electoral samples (more than most presidential candidates can ever claim), we’ve repeatedly seen people voting just for Trump and nobody else. Like, vote Trump, leave the rest of the ballot blank. Back in 2016, it was described as a “negative coat-tails” effect. Now, it’s more described as a pure cult of personality. Trump sucks in people who generally don’t like either party to vote exclusively for him.

    • JcbAzPx@lemmy.world
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      4 hours ago

      He literally said himself that he cheated. The important point here is people rejecting the party because of him now. There are die hard maga not voting or even voting Dem out of spite.

      • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
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        3 hours ago

        He literally said himself that he cheated.

        He said he cheated. He said the Democrats cheated. He says whatever sounds good to him at the moment. That’s got nothing to do with the election results.

        The important point here is people rejecting the party because of him now.

        Why is it always “If they won, they must have cheated, but if I won then clearly the people have embraced my party instead”?

        Why do elections only provide meaningful information when they break your way?

        • JcbAzPx@lemmy.world
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          1 hour ago

          Dude, the democratic candidates are winning or at least making huge gains in deeply republican strongholds. This is not swing districts moving half a point.

          • UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world
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            56 minutes ago

            winning or at least making huge gains

            What are the odds that the Democrats win the Senate, even in a landscape with +15 D turnout?

            Dems still have to defend somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-4 seats and are in a position to gain… maybe +3-4? Six on a truly historic landslide. Which puts them right back where they were in 2020, with John Fetterman filling in for Joe Manchin / Joe Lieberman, and everyone has to peg their hopes on Platner or Slotkin not going completely sour.

            This is not swing districts moving half a point.

            Go back to 2018 and remind yourself of how Democrats played themselves against Trump in his first term. Two years later, how did Biden behave?

            At some point, you have to see this for what it is. We have two business parties, each of which are jockeying to be the champions of a handful of deeply reactionary Silicon Valley trillionaires and their buddies at JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs. What do you think a Dem Majority is going to do about ICE in 2027? What do you think they’re going to do with the Epstein Files? What do you think they’re going to do about Iran?

            Go back to 2021. Go back to 2012 and 2008. Go back to 1993 or 1977. There’s a pattern here, for those with eyes to see.