Great read! I wonder what his perspective is now. That article was written in August 2024 and a lot has happened since then. For example, I cannot fathom the agreement to Sundar’s latest pay package. Another example of failing up the corporate ladder.

Also, it feels like competition with China was an overlooked wildcard in his argument. It would not surprise me if the bubble continues to grow just to try and beat China.

A big, stupid magic trick: As these companies get desperate, expect someone — especially OpenAI — to try and show something “new and crazy” as a means of trying to turn the narrative. When or if this happens, look very carefully at what they say about the product’s availability, or what it can do, or who they show it to.

Alternative scenario — Sora launches: If OpenAI gets desperate, it may move up the public launch of Sora, its generative video product. Doing so will only cause more problems — there isn’t a chance in hell that Sora is profitable, and I’m fairly sure it’s even more expensive to run than ChatGPT, and I imagine its visual inconsistencies and hallucinations would make for some entertaining content for YouTubers and tech reporters.

It was a horseman, just not the part where they cancel it a few months later.

To be fair to OpenAI, they are now saying “just use ChatGPT for video too”. Good chance that Disney cancelled them before they cancelled Sora

Great read, thank you