The defense industry lost the ability to make weapons when crisis hit. The same pattern is eroding software engineering skills. The timelines are identical.
For which you still need massive amounts of memory and compute to run reliably. That, and the fact that chatbots and agents nowadays rely on all sorts of proprietary customizations, outside of the realm of LLMs, to perform certain tasks.
The gap will take decades to close, if it ever does.
Previously, to benefit from the full power of LLMs, you had to skew to higher parameter models. Recent developments in models like Gemma 4 and Qwen-3.6-35B-A3B demonstrate advanced capabilities such as tool-calling which enable LLMs to search the web, interact with external APIs and file systems, troubleshoot live systems and fundamentally reason about topics that lie outside of their initial training data.
The gap will take decades to close, if it ever does.
2026’s average gaming PC is massive amounts of memory and compute apparently
Any model that can run on 16GB or less, is not going to be any close in real world tasks, to any other cloud based model. It just cannot be. There are people out there running Qwen on the Mac Studio with 96GB, and it falls short of cloud based models in both performance and speed.
lol there are plenty of open source models in the top 100 with multiple SOTA models released in the last few months alone
The top 100 of what, exactly? Many blended benchmark results are notoriously biased, and LLMs “cheat” on benchmarks on every single opportunity, so it is still hard to tell, outside of real world tasks and speed, which models are actually better than others.
But regardless, the main point of the gap is resources. Even if the average gaming computer was really enough to run meaningful models, the vast majority of the world wouldn’t have access to it, even more so in this day and age, where a single RAM stick couldn’t be bought with a whole monthly salary in most parts of the world.
But regardless, the main point of the gap is resources
What makes you think we won’t have the resources in the future?
Any model that can run on 16GB or less, is not going to be any close in real world tasks, to any other cloud based model. It just cannot be.
Well you can compare Gemma 4 running in LM Studio on an average gaming PC to ChatGPT3.5 and you tell me? Or is your benchmark purely based on right at this very moment between open source models today vs cloud today?
For reference Gemma 4 is 26 billion parameters, gp3 thought to be over 175 billion and of course had no optimisations like MoE, it was searching its entire library every single question so was rather slow as well
We know as well that there is no slow down in pushing for optimisations, Deepseeks initial release was the initial driver for you don’t have to just scale up using hardware alone
They’re also pushing with Chinese native chips from Huawei trying to diversify away from nvidia holding the crown
The problem I’ve got is that you all have a god of the gaps, the conversation I was having 3 years ago was different to 2 years ago was different to 1 year ago, I was told AI could never do songs good enough then suddenly people were worried they couldn’t tell the difference, then they said they could never do movies, now apparently not only is it good enough it’s hilarious
The open source LLM’s we have today are incredible and in the last few months we’ve had Qwen, GLM, Nemotron/Nvidia, Mistral, Google and heeaaps of others released, it feels like you’re just looking for a reason to be dour and pessimistic but that’s just me
The problem I’ve got is that you all have a god of the gaps, the conversation I was having 3 years ago was different to 2 years ago was different to 1 year ago
And I guess the problem I have with you, is that you seem to think that you can get results with 16GB, competitive with models that run on a Blackwell 6000 with 96GB, while ignoring the fact that the vast majority of the people in the world are running GPUs with 4 to 8 GB of VRAM, if they even have access to GPUs, at all.
That’s the gap. Most people don’t have the kind of money you think they do, and even those who do have some money, they will never achieve the same results as with cloud models, because if there’s a state of the art optimization that makes models 10 times smaller, cloud models will become 10 times bigger with that advantage. It’s pretty simple.
For which you still need massive amounts of memory and compute to run reliably. That, and the fact that chatbots and agents nowadays rely on all sorts of proprietary customizations, outside of the realm of LLMs, to perform certain tasks.
The gap will take decades to close, if it ever does.
2026’s average gaming PC is massive amounts of memory and compute apparently
lol there are plenty of open source models in the top 100 with multiple SOTA models released in the last few months alone
There’s also smaller LLM’s being made like https://eurollm.io/ which excel in their own ways
Funny that just came up: https://discourse.ubuntu.com/t/the-future-of-ai-in-ubuntu/81130?=0
😁
Any model that can run on 16GB or less, is not going to be any close in real world tasks, to any other cloud based model. It just cannot be. There are people out there running Qwen on the Mac Studio with 96GB, and it falls short of cloud based models in both performance and speed.
The top 100 of what, exactly? Many blended benchmark results are notoriously biased, and LLMs “cheat” on benchmarks on every single opportunity, so it is still hard to tell, outside of real world tasks and speed, which models are actually better than others.
But regardless, the main point of the gap is resources. Even if the average gaming computer was really enough to run meaningful models, the vast majority of the world wouldn’t have access to it, even more so in this day and age, where a single RAM stick couldn’t be bought with a whole monthly salary in most parts of the world.
What makes you think we won’t have the resources in the future?
Well you can compare Gemma 4 running in LM Studio on an average gaming PC to ChatGPT3.5 and you tell me? Or is your benchmark purely based on right at this very moment between open source models today vs cloud today?
For reference Gemma 4 is 26 billion parameters, gp3 thought to be over 175 billion and of course had no optimisations like MoE, it was searching its entire library every single question so was rather slow as well
We know as well that there is no slow down in pushing for optimisations, Deepseeks initial release was the initial driver for you don’t have to just scale up using hardware alone
https://research.google/blog/turboquant-redefining-ai-efficiency-with-extreme-compression/
They’re also pushing with Chinese native chips from Huawei trying to diversify away from nvidia holding the crown
The problem I’ve got is that you all have a god of the gaps, the conversation I was having 3 years ago was different to 2 years ago was different to 1 year ago, I was told AI could never do songs good enough then suddenly people were worried they couldn’t tell the difference, then they said they could never do movies, now apparently not only is it good enough it’s hilarious
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgHn7PI55J4
The open source LLM’s we have today are incredible and in the last few months we’ve had Qwen, GLM, Nemotron/Nvidia, Mistral, Google and heeaaps of others released, it feels like you’re just looking for a reason to be dour and pessimistic but that’s just me
Any way I’m off to sleep, have a good one :)
And I guess the problem I have with you, is that you seem to think that you can get results with 16GB, competitive with models that run on a Blackwell 6000 with 96GB, while ignoring the fact that the vast majority of the people in the world are running GPUs with 4 to 8 GB of VRAM, if they even have access to GPUs, at all.
That’s the gap. Most people don’t have the kind of money you think they do, and even those who do have some money, they will never achieve the same results as with cloud models, because if there’s a state of the art optimization that makes models 10 times smaller, cloud models will become 10 times bigger with that advantage. It’s pretty simple.