Forgejo/Codeberg is the one that will take over in the coming decade.
This is both wishful thinking, and would reintroduce the same problem anyway (centralization) if it would happen (the codeberg part).
I don’t take seriously individuals celebrating a move to self-hosting either. While it may look cool and ideally liberating at first, infrastructure/hosting responsibility has worse bus factors and burnout than actual development (not to mention actual monetary costs). It’s safe to assume that any code self-hosted has a high chance of becoming unreachable in 1-3 years (and yes, exceptions exist).
Solutions like radicale don’t help with unpopular repos, as you would again get a (hosting) bus factor of 1 (the dev/seeder), if that.
A theoretical solution leveraging an anonymous encrypted distributed storage network for repos would help keeping code alive for a while (after the bus hits). But unpopular content will eventually fizzle out, out of the network.
Multiple congregations of Forgejo (or something similar) communities forming would be cool. But the technology that would help them form one social block with network effects doesn’t exist*. And what’s proposed here and there (like federation for issues) doesn’t cover the code itself. And even if we get far in that direction, instance drama incidents, and attempts at exerting control over “the network” will inescapably appear.
* I don’t know if tangled counts. But judging by the amount of love😑 people shoe the AT protocol, it may as well not exist.
tl;dr: Codeberg will not become GH-big. And if it did, it wouldn’t be a good thing. And yet there is no ideal alternative to central forges anyway, not even a theoretical one.
This is both wishful thinking, and would reintroduce the same problem anyway (centralization) if it would happen (the codeberg part).
I don’t take seriously individuals celebrating a move to self-hosting either. While it may look cool and ideally liberating at first, infrastructure/hosting responsibility has worse bus factors and burnout than actual development (not to mention actual monetary costs). It’s safe to assume that any code self-hosted has a high chance of becoming unreachable in 1-3 years (and yes, exceptions exist).
Solutions like radicale don’t help with unpopular repos, as you would again get a (hosting) bus factor of 1 (the dev/seeder), if that.
A theoretical solution leveraging an anonymous encrypted distributed storage network for repos would help keeping code alive for a while (after the bus hits). But unpopular content will eventually fizzle out, out of the network.
Multiple congregations of Forgejo (or something similar) communities forming would be cool. But the technology that would help them form one social block with network effects doesn’t exist*. And what’s proposed here and there (like federation for issues) doesn’t cover the code itself. And even if we get far in that direction, instance drama incidents, and attempts at exerting control over “the network” will inescapably appear.
* I don’t know if tangled counts. But judging by the amount of love 😑 people shoe the AT protocol, it may as well not exist.
tl;dr: Codeberg will not become GH-big. And if it did, it wouldn’t be a good thing. And yet there is no ideal alternative to central forges anyway, not even a theoretical one.