If China manages to produce the DUV machines itself, it could cost ASML billions of euros in the long run. In the last quarter, 14 % of the machines ASML sold went to China. The Veldhoven‑based manufacturer expects to earn 20 % of its revenue from China this year. If the revenue forecast, recently revised up from €43 billion to €45 billion for this year, materialises, that would correspond to roughly €9 billion.
Further testing
For now ASML does not seem to have to worry. Chinese technology is not yet as advanced and reliable as that of the Dutch company. Before mass production can start in China, the machines still need to be tested. This year China is reportedly starting production of five machines; a year later that number is expected to rise to twenty.
Although ASML appears to retain its lead for the moment, investors were spooked on Monday. The ASML share ended 8.5 % lower, the lowest level since early June. Dutch rivals Besi and ASM also fell sharply, losing almost 10 % and more than 7 % of their value respectively.
Some of it translated