Despite everyone hoping for a better future where DRAMs are supplied in abundance, the global semiconductor memory supply crunch is currently showing no sign of relief. In fact, apparently things …
We just have greedy assholes who fabricate shortages through manipulation
This is wrong, chip fabrication is perhaps the biggest marvel of modern technology. And the equipment to make modern chips is extremely expensive and takes a long time to make.
You can’t just suddenly scale up production in a matter of months. Production is only scaled up according to planning that was made years ago. This has zero to do with how much sand is available. New production takes years to be ready from the decision is made.
But the bubble is cracking, and the claim about RAM shortage until at least 2028 may easily be wrong, because if investors pull back, and the money run out in the AI segment, orders will be cancelled. Current orders are based on expected trajectories, and everybody has raced to order now, because they fear even worse shortage and higher prices later.
When the orders begin to be cancelled, that’s one of the signs the AI bubble is bursting, or maybe fizzling out as I expect could also happen.
So I agree don’t buy RAM or anything that is overpriced because of the AI craze, unless you absolutely have to. Prices will drop almost as soon as AI demands for expanding server centers weakens. Because everybody is scaling up production as fast as they can, and just as it takes time to scale up, it also takes time to scale back again. So a period with over supply following the bubble is very likely.
This is wrong, chip fabrication is perhaps the biggest marvel of modern technology. And the equipment to make modern chips is extremely expensive and takes a long time to make.
You can’t just suddenly scale up production in a matter of months. Production is only scaled up according to planning that was made years ago. This has zero to do with how much sand is available. New production takes years to be ready from the decision is made.
But the bubble is cracking, and the claim about RAM shortage until at least 2028 may easily be wrong, because if investors pull back, and the money run out in the AI segment, orders will be cancelled. Current orders are based on expected trajectories, and everybody has raced to order now, because they fear even worse shortage and higher prices later.
When the orders begin to be cancelled, that’s one of the signs the AI bubble is bursting, or maybe fizzling out as I expect could also happen.
So I agree don’t buy RAM or anything that is overpriced because of the AI craze, unless you absolutely have to. Prices will drop almost as soon as AI demands for expanding server centers weakens. Because everybody is scaling up production as fast as they can, and just as it takes time to scale up, it also takes time to scale back again. So a period with over supply following the bubble is very likely.