That’s what’s profitable right now. Makes sense. But could the market come back down to ‘normal’ at some point? How long do we expect RAM to cost this much?
Most of the big providers are already sold out of all their scheduled supply through 2027 and part of 2028, so at least another year even if something like CXMT scales to start to fill the market
When lead times grow, companies start ordering further and further out to make sure they won’t get stuck waiting in line.
The whole “sold out until end of 2027” thing should not be taken nearly so literally. Yes, memory is in high demand, but that doesn’t mean there’s literally a year and a half worth of gap between production capacity and demand. If someone magiced tons of memory into existance, most of those orders would not be ready to take delivery. We saw the same thing with the automotive chip shortages. There were tons of articles about crazy lead times, then once supply started catching up again it was suddenly a non issue.
It won’t come back down ever again and we’ll be forced to chose between paying a monthly subscription to use a VM on the cloud or pay an even higher price than now for the privilege of owning a PC.
I am thinking China is going to stir things up big time in the coming years. They are already doing this today with EVs. And now they have started with their own chip manufacturing as well.
Makes even more sense when you realize all these companies are going to be sitting on massive unused data centers filled with computers sitting idle. Of course they’re going to pivot to renting time on those systems.
Even if the demand from data centers goes down, there will be a lot of pent up demand from everything else. And AI isn’t going away, even if OpenAI et al. stop their mad buildout. I think DRAM is going to be very profitable for the foreseeable future.
That’s what’s profitable right now. Makes sense. But could the market come back down to ‘normal’ at some point? How long do we expect RAM to cost this much?
Most of the big providers are already sold out of all their scheduled supply through 2027 and part of 2028, so at least another year even if something like CXMT scales to start to fill the market
When lead times grow, companies start ordering further and further out to make sure they won’t get stuck waiting in line.
The whole “sold out until end of 2027” thing should not be taken nearly so literally. Yes, memory is in high demand, but that doesn’t mean there’s literally a year and a half worth of gap between production capacity and demand. If someone magiced tons of memory into existance, most of those orders would not be ready to take delivery. We saw the same thing with the automotive chip shortages. There were tons of articles about crazy lead times, then once supply started catching up again it was suddenly a non issue.
But if the data center boom collapses suddenly they’re all making consumer ram again.
Can’t use hardware produced by the insidious Chinese. It would destroy our economy and open up all our devices to the evil kind of spyware.
I believe this will happen, and I hate it:
It won’t come back down ever again and we’ll be forced to chose between paying a monthly subscription to use a VM on the cloud or pay an even higher price than now for the privilege of owning a PC.
Shit’s bad right now, but a shitnado is brewing.
I am thinking China is going to stir things up big time in the coming years. They are already doing this today with EVs. And now they have started with their own chip manufacturing as well.
I hope, anything can happen. But it will take them 5 years at the very least. That’s coincidentally what EVs took them, roughly.
Makes even more sense when you realize all these companies are going to be sitting on massive unused data centers filled with computers sitting idle. Of course they’re going to pivot to renting time on those systems.
Even if the demand from data centers goes down, there will be a lot of pent up demand from everything else. And AI isn’t going away, even if OpenAI et al. stop their mad buildout. I think DRAM is going to be very profitable for the foreseeable future.