Yeah I’d take this poll with a big pinch of salt. The french electorate is very divided, split 1/3 each between Left, Right and Centre. No candidate is going to win the 1st round, and the 2nd round is quite different from the 1st.
In the 1st voters vote for who they want, but in the 2nd many voters are voting against the candidate the hate the most. If Le Pen comes first in the first round, it’s really all about who she’s facing. If it’s Melenchon then things will be unpredictable as it’ll come down to who the centrists vote for - and there are plenty on the right who would never vote for Melenchon. However if shes against a centrist, then she’s more likely to lose even if they’re deeply unpopular now, because they’re the easier “anyone but Le Pen”.
The outcome of the election is very unpredictable; no one is going to give any idea of what the outcome might be until closer to the election in April and even then it’ll probably be down to the wire.
If it’s Melenchon then things will be unpredictable as it’ll come down to who the centrists vote for - and there are plenty on the right who would never vote for Melenchon. However if shes against a centrist, then she’s more likely to lose even if they’re deeply unpopular now, because they’re the easier “anyone but Le Pen”.
Where is the evidence of this? This assumption proved catastrophic in US elections, Biden was an awful choice to run against Trump and so was Harris.
Polling data. In head-to-head matchups Melenchon does worst against Le Pen (and it’s not close, two-thirds would vote for Le Pen over Melenchon).
A candidate who needs to win against a far-right candidate needs to not alienate either centrists or the left. That means a strong core message focused on issues rather than ideology or radicalism. Biden/Harris didn’t have a strong core message and alienated voters on the left, Melenchon is far too much of an idealogue and radical so he’s alienated the centrists. A lot of centrist voters prefer Le Pen to Melenchon because Melenchon turned them away, not because Le Pen was so attractive.
Yeah I’d take this poll with a big pinch of salt. The french electorate is very divided, split 1/3 each between Left, Right and Centre. No candidate is going to win the 1st round, and the 2nd round is quite different from the 1st.
In the 1st voters vote for who they want, but in the 2nd many voters are voting against the candidate the hate the most. If Le Pen comes first in the first round, it’s really all about who she’s facing. If it’s Melenchon then things will be unpredictable as it’ll come down to who the centrists vote for - and there are plenty on the right who would never vote for Melenchon. However if shes against a centrist, then she’s more likely to lose even if they’re deeply unpopular now, because they’re the easier “anyone but Le Pen”.
The outcome of the election is very unpredictable; no one is going to give any idea of what the outcome might be until closer to the election in April and even then it’ll probably be down to the wire.
Where is the evidence of this? This assumption proved catastrophic in US elections, Biden was an awful choice to run against Trump and so was Harris.
Polling data. In head-to-head matchups Melenchon does worst against Le Pen (and it’s not close, two-thirds would vote for Le Pen over Melenchon).
A candidate who needs to win against a far-right candidate needs to not alienate either centrists or the left. That means a strong core message focused on issues rather than ideology or radicalism. Biden/Harris didn’t have a strong core message and alienated voters on the left, Melenchon is far too much of an idealogue and radical so he’s alienated the centrists. A lot of centrist voters prefer Le Pen to Melenchon because Melenchon turned them away, not because Le Pen was so attractive.