Yeah, I’m fairly confident that they’re near the ceiling of what is possible with the current technology.
Also there’s so much slop out there now that LLMs are beginning to train on the slop and effectively giving themselves a sort of digital folding prion disease.
I follow a lot of journalists who cover AI specifically, and everything I’m seeing shows quality increasing more slowly over time as the cost builds at an increasing rate.
The financial fuckery does make it hard to keep track of, but the fact that they’re even engaged in that sort of financing betrays that they are not in good financial health.
I’m not at all confident that they’re hitting a ceiling yet, and I suspect one’s outlook on that depends on how the information bubble you’re in is shaped. I concede that mine is influenced by my interest in the underlying technology.
I do believe that even if the bubble popped right now, and the current models are the best we’ll get for the next ten years, that would be enough to have dramatic consequences (aside from the econuclear fallout from the crash, that is).
In this scenario, why would companies start attempting to make big expensive chatbots again after they caused the worst financial fallout of all time? That would be likely the least advisable business move ever.
Similar to you, I would concede that my information sphere is influenced by my contempt for the technology (as well as by my love for computers in general)… thank you for being open to have a real conversation with me about this by the way. Most of the time I just end up getting attacked because pro-AI people don’t like what I have to say.
I would note tho, that there’s only a profit motive involved in one of these competing narratives, and that would be the narrative being pushed by the oligarchic techbro fascists.
Agree, in that case the development would probably be more incremental, focusing on what can be improved without hundreds of thousands of GPUs available, and moving inference maybe to a local-first setting. There would be no promise of 1000x profits from that, so maybe we’d get a more managable pace.
Thank you too. I have the same feeling, just the other way around - lemmy seems to have little patience for even slight positivity towards AI and LLMs in particular. Having an actual discussion is refreshing.
Regarding the profit motive, I concur, at least for the US side. I’m less certain about China, but I’m not very knowledgable there, so maybe the same mechanisms are in effect.
Yeah, I’m fairly confident that they’re near the ceiling of what is possible with the current technology.
Also there’s so much slop out there now that LLMs are beginning to train on the slop and effectively giving themselves a sort of digital folding prion disease.
I follow a lot of journalists who cover AI specifically, and everything I’m seeing shows quality increasing more slowly over time as the cost builds at an increasing rate.
The financial fuckery does make it hard to keep track of, but the fact that they’re even engaged in that sort of financing betrays that they are not in good financial health.
I’m not at all confident that they’re hitting a ceiling yet, and I suspect one’s outlook on that depends on how the information bubble you’re in is shaped. I concede that mine is influenced by my interest in the underlying technology.
I do believe that even if the bubble popped right now, and the current models are the best we’ll get for the next ten years, that would be enough to have dramatic consequences (aside from the econuclear fallout from the crash, that is).
In this scenario, why would companies start attempting to make big expensive chatbots again after they caused the worst financial fallout of all time? That would be likely the least advisable business move ever.
Similar to you, I would concede that my information sphere is influenced by my contempt for the technology (as well as by my love for computers in general)… thank you for being open to have a real conversation with me about this by the way. Most of the time I just end up getting attacked because pro-AI people don’t like what I have to say.
I would note tho, that there’s only a profit motive involved in one of these competing narratives, and that would be the narrative being pushed by the oligarchic techbro fascists.
Agree, in that case the development would probably be more incremental, focusing on what can be improved without hundreds of thousands of GPUs available, and moving inference maybe to a local-first setting. There would be no promise of 1000x profits from that, so maybe we’d get a more managable pace.
Thank you too. I have the same feeling, just the other way around - lemmy seems to have little patience for even slight positivity towards AI and LLMs in particular. Having an actual discussion is refreshing.
Regarding the profit motive, I concur, at least for the US side. I’m less certain about China, but I’m not very knowledgable there, so maybe the same mechanisms are in effect.