I think Russia poses a threat to anyone no matter how deep a hole they are currently in, they are a nuclear power, and even though the most likely people on the planet to use a nuke are the US in Iran or Israel in Iran, the threat of a nuclear powered nation engaging in offensive war is terrifying.

No matter how well the EU would be able to defend, and I have very very little opinion there, my info is extremely low with EU matters, Russia testing Nato directly would show that the agreement effectively doesn’t exist. I think it’s just as likely that Nato/EU does as much about Russian aggression as they did with Ukraine, no matter where it happens.

I could be totally wrong there, I’m willing to be totally wrong there.

I think drones as a fundamental technology of war have changed the game in a way you wouldn’t call air supremacy. Air supremacy used to rely on incredibly expensive pieces of flight equipment, even the drones. Now the tech involves things that cost pennies in comparison (basically consumer drone tech with military grade explosives tapes to them) that can take out a piece of equipment which is nearly irreplaceable. War has changed right under the nose of the US and Russia. At least Russia is trying to catch up, the US is rejecting this tech and trying to put more pieces of 7-8 figure equipment in the air.