I think it’s probably true that men report fewer incidents, but the ratios are pretty far apart for rape. This website also makes the point that up to 30% of sexual assault for males occurs in childhood. Good stats for underreporting are hard to obtain but it seems like it’s something like 50% unreported for men. Maybe a bit lower for women. It just seems like a stretch to say that it’s equally likely for both genders. You’d have to go to extreme differences between the rates of reporting (3-5x).
Agreed - overall this isn’t my point, but it’s a good thing to get calibrated.
Looking deeper, it seems like the stats vary along with specific criteria.
Another source: Sexual Violence Statistics - RAINN https://share.google/0MKSuQVWw2PWiZHhX
This puts the ratio at 1:10.
I think it’s probably true that men report fewer incidents, but the ratios are pretty far apart for rape. This website also makes the point that up to 30% of sexual assault for males occurs in childhood. Good stats for underreporting are hard to obtain but it seems like it’s something like 50% unreported for men. Maybe a bit lower for women. It just seems like a stretch to say that it’s equally likely for both genders. You’d have to go to extreme differences between the rates of reporting (3-5x).