The longer we wait, the more catastrophic and destabilizing the pop will be.
That said, despite Google’s massive stock drop, I don’t think we’re there yet in the US. Google never expected the AI Overview to be a money maker. They just needed it to answer users’ questions more readily than a trip to ChatGPT or Claude. And they probably count that as a success. To Google, they are more than willing to cannibalize their own ad revenue if it means having the largest seat at the trough for AI later, because they think it will be a single funnel to capture all revenue for practically every industry.
So AI has become an almost mythical final form of capitalistic value capture. It’s like a poker game and every tech giant just continues to raise the bet because even if they’re bluffing, they think whoever holds out longest wins all the money. They’re still in that mindset. But in fact, AI is more like a poker game where to play, you incinerate your bet in a burning dumpster in the middle. That’s the thing that, once they realize it, will cause the bubble to pop.
I’m worried this is the beginning of the pop
It can’t come soon enough. See this Reuters story about China’s bubble popping:
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-ai-bubble-has-already-burst-2026-10-26/
The longer we wait, the more catastrophic and destabilizing the pop will be.
That said, despite Google’s massive stock drop, I don’t think we’re there yet in the US. Google never expected the AI Overview to be a money maker. They just needed it to answer users’ questions more readily than a trip to ChatGPT or Claude. And they probably count that as a success. To Google, they are more than willing to cannibalize their own ad revenue if it means having the largest seat at the trough for AI later, because they think it will be a single funnel to capture all revenue for practically every industry.
So AI has become an almost mythical final form of capitalistic value capture. It’s like a poker game and every tech giant just continues to raise the bet because even if they’re bluffing, they think whoever holds out longest wins all the money. They’re still in that mindset. But in fact, AI is more like a poker game where to play, you incinerate your bet in a burning dumpster in the middle. That’s the thing that, once they realize it, will cause the bubble to pop.
Not there yet, unfortunately.
Worried that it’s about to start? If it’s gonna pop at some point then the sooner the better.
Truth
You spelled hopeful wrong.