I don’t disagree with you about AGI but the timeframe is the big question. Will it come in a decade or a century? Impossible to know.

I have no doubts that AGI will eventually arrive unless we blow ourselves up

I was just about to say the same thing! I’m guessing it will take a bit longer than a decade and I’m not too optimistic about our chances of surviving that long. Well, at least surviving with all of our technology intact.