Continuing my little series on a more grounded approach towards a more favourable outcome of WW1 for the Central Powers, here’s the next entry focusing on the Gorlice Tarnow offensive of 1915. The first entry focused on a more comprehensive German victory in the second battle of Ypres in April 1915. By collapsing the salient there, the Germans can free up one or two more divisions for operations in the east. Additionally, and more importantly this event makes Italy think twice before entering the war on the side of the Entente. Italy delays its entry and remains on the proverbial fence for a little while longer.

Continued Italian neutrality allows Austria-Hungary to keep an additional 10-12 divisions focused on Russia and Serbia for the moment. Crucially the large calibre Skoda artillery pieces starting to roll out of the factory can remain at and continue go to the eastern front instead of the Isonzo for now. This allows Austria-Hungary to have a more active role in the historical Gorlice Tarnow Offensive.

Historically Mackensen’s Eleventh Army punched through Russian lines between Gorlice and Tarnow starting on 2 May 1915. This map depicts the (fictional) southern extension of that punch, carried out by Boroevic’s Third (Austro-Hungarian) Army. Just a day after Mackensen’s main push the Austrian artillery starts attacking the Russian positions south of Nowy Zmigród. After losing Stary Zmigród the Russians retreat towards Debowiec. At the same time the Austrian 10th Corps pushes up against the Wisloka river. After intense hand-to-hand fighting the Austrians manage to take the hills north of Jaslo while their artillery superiority allows them to advance towards the Jasiolka river from the south.

At this point the Russian command structure begins to falter and a shattered retreat by parts of the 24th Corps and the bulk of the 7th Corps leads to the bulk of the retreating 24th Corps caught within the city. What’s left of the Russian forces tries to regroup east of the Jasiolka river with a new position headquartered at Krosno (off-map). This engagement would see Russian losses of around 15,000, of which around 8,000-10,000 POWs, and the capture of about 40 artillery pieces. Meanwhile Austrian losses would be around 3,000, mostly dead and wounded. (Both sides have understrength divisions after the intense winter fighting here.) General Leontiy Vladimirovich Irmanov, commanding the 24th Corps, is encircled along with the bulk of his 48thth and 63rd divisions.

Historically Jaslo didn’t see much action and was taken by the Austrians after the Russians retreated in mostly good order after losing the Gorlice-Tarnow-Line. This ahistorical outcome, achieved with more Austrian forces and artillery available to support the offensive widens the gap in the Russian line. It also deprives Russia of forces that historically acted as a rearguard for later retreats. Lastly the southern road towards Rzeszow is now wide open, allowing Boroevic’s Third Army to move north in a pincer movement with Mackensen’s Eleventh Army, threatening to repeat the Battle of Jaslo in Rzeszow on a larger scale.

I hope this scenario is still mostly grounded and realistically achievable given the outcome of Ypres just a few weeks earlier. From what I could find out it mirrors what Austria had planned to do but couldn’t due to sending forces (including Gen. Boroevic) to the Isonzo to combat Italy.