The preliminary results of the Honduran elections on November 30 shocked many. In fact, a handful of polls had predicted that the leftist candidate, Rixi Moncada, from the ruling LIBRE party, would easily triumph at the polls. In the polls that claimed that Salvador Nasralla, from the Liberal Party, or Nasry Asfura, from the National Party, would win the election, Moncada was ranked as the virtual runner-up. Once again, the polls failed miserably.

The election was marked by Donald Trump’s clear influence, as he affirmed his support for Asfura and promised not to provide economic aid if Nasralla or Moncada won. He also promised to pardon former Honduran President Juan Orlando Hernández of the National Party (the same party as Asfura), who was serving a 45-year sentence for drug trafficking and was released on December 2.

The vote for the two candidates from the Honduran right, who adopted an anti-communist and anti-Venezuela rhetoric, was massive. As of the afternoon of December 2, with 62% of the total votes counted, Nasralla managed to edge slightly ahead with 39.95% of the vote over Asfura’s 39.8%.

This means that there is a technical tie between the two candidates, and we will have to wait until the end of the count to find out who will be the next president of Honduras. Moncada is far behind, with less than 20%.

In any case, whether the winner is the conservative Asfura or the right-wing Nasralla, Honduras has decided on a very clear ideological shift. The next president will have to face a country that seems to be returning to the two-party system that characterizes Honduras’ electoral history, in which leaders from the Liberal Party and National Party have alternated in government more or less regularly.

Salvador Zúniga Cáceres, a member of the Civic Council of Popular and Indigenous Organizations of Honduras (COPINH), told Peoples Dispatch that in both cases, the people will lose.

In the case of an Asfura victory, Zúniga stated that, “it will represent a continuation of the government of Juan Orlando Hernández, the president who established the narco-dictatorship. Furthermore, paradoxically, when Donald Trump says he is fighting drug trafficking in Venezuela, he is at the same time supporting this candidate.” “For the majority of the population,” he added, the victory of the National Party Candidate, “would mean a return to a criminal state that has persecuted all of us who are part of social movements, and all the violence and economic decline that will accompany this situation.”

Meanwhile, Salvador Nasralla, he says, “represents the support of the economic elites of Honduras. In addition, he has repeatedly begged Donald Trump for his support, only to be rejected for allegedly belonging to the left, even though [Nasralla] is not at all left-wing.”

“Thus, we expect that the economic sectors of Honduras or imperialism, or both, will take power in the country, which would mean a setback for fundamental rights such as the right to land, water, and life, as well as the economic rights and purchasing power of the population,” Zúniga affirms.

Moncada alleges irregularities

Moncada, who even on election day claimed to be ahead of her opponents, issued a brief message of thanks at the end of the night and vowed to comment further once more results were released: “I am grateful to the Libre Party and our people, who turned out en masse to vote for my proposal for economic and democratic reform.”

The following day, she affirmed that there had been “cheating” in the vote count: “Regarding the manipulated election results, I confirm that this fight is not over. The instructions given to our departmental and municipal leaders to send the closing reports at the three elective levels must be complied with. According to our team’s technical analysis, we have found some obvious areas of cheating in progress. The elimination of the validation of the records against the biometric readers approved by the bipartisan coalition in the CNE (one night before the elections) enables the addition of inflated records, especially at the presidential level, where the bipartisan coalition has 1,629 records without biometrics, equivalent to 543,478 votes.”

Moncada added, “I will maintain my positions, and I will not give up. I will always be on the side of the people with my firm values in defense of my free homeland and the principles of non-interference and popular sovereignty, independence, and self-determination of peoples.”

These accusations bring back memories of the 2017 elections, in which Juan Orlando Hernández was elected. At that time, a large percentage of Hondurans, as well as leading international organizations like the Organization of American States (OAS), claimed that electoral fraud had been committed and staged major demonstrations across the country. The massive repression of the protests resulted in the deaths of dozens of protesters and many injured.

A new legislature that leans to the right

Likewise, preliminary results on the future composition of Congress, for which Hondurans also voted, show a clear change. Of a total of 128 deputies, the National Party would currently obtain 50 seats, the Liberal Party 40, and 34 would be members of LIBRE. Due to the narrow margin of votes, the final results are still pending.

The remaining seats in the legislature would be divided among the other minority parties: four for the Social Democratic Party and two for the Christian Democrats. This means that the Honduran right wing has the qualified majority needed to undertake a radicalization of the neoliberal project, as promised by its top leaders.

Why did the left lose, and what lies ahead for social movements?

Moncada’s loss was confirmed with the release of the first round of preliminary rapid results on Sunday night. Her third place spot shocked many who, as previously mentioned, predicted a possible Moncada victory or at least second place.

According to Zúniga, to understand LIBRE’s defeat, it is necessary to comprehend that the party’s strength lies in its social base, which emerged after the 2009 coup against Manuel Zelaya. LIBRE also was confident that the reductions in crime rates and poverty, and the increase in the provision of social services, would be enough to secure victory.

As COPINH outlined in their statement released on Monday, December 1, the results constitute a “protest vote” against what many saw as the party’s betrayal of its roots and strengths. A response they say, to its failure “to effectively address all the needs raised by organizations, for allowing the most conservative wing of the party to engage in improper actions, and for failing to thoroughly confront the power structures that dominate the country and that in recent years have waged a powerful and well-coordinated media war from the large media monopolies they own, accompanied by the mobilization of the most reactionary sectors.”

The statement adds that, “There are also lessons for social movements. We have made strategic mistakes by not maintaining a strong presence in the streets and allowing conservative groups to occupy a space that is ours.”

Amid the necessary self-criticism, Zúniga states that, “It also must be understood…that the economic elites in Honduras have great power and have historically decided who serves as president. Added to this is the strong and constant subliminal attack by the media, which has criminalized the popular sectors by linking them, without any evidence, to drug trafficking groups and generating a great deal of fear among the population.”

Regarding the influence Donald Trump’s statements had on the election, he affirms that they were decisive: “Honduras has played a fundamental political, economic, and military role for imperialism. Honduras played a fundamental role as a military platform for the United States in the armed conflicts in Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala. As a result of popular resistance in Honduras, that [US] hegemony has been partially defeated. The empire seeks to establish itself more strongly in the region.”

Zúniga added that this explains the role played by the media in the elections and the fear imposed on the Honduran migrant population in the United States. “We must also consider the threats of an economic blockade and military intervention in Honduras if a center-left government were to win.”

As the counting continues, Zúniga underscores that whatever the outcome is, Honduras’ robust but embattled social movements will see a setback. He says that it is a moment to strengthen organizations and build strong networks and alliances with others. “We must not forget that the two-party system and US intervention have meant the murder of thousands and thousands of Hondurans, so we must find mechanisms for self-defense and the construction of alternatives.”

In their statement, COPINH declared that: “Together with our fellow social organizations, we have already called for the creation of a National Plan of Action to demand land, defend the environment, and seek justice. This plan must involve patient and constant work in the territories, streets, schools, neighborhoods, churches, and all public spaces to confront conservative ideas, the plundering of territories, and criminal actions that threaten our communities and the country. The historical responsibility continues to fall on the people, who are the only ones who can change the country. To paraphrase our comrade Berta, today it is up to us to intensify the struggle and intensify hope.”