Update: apparently this was a kidnapping, according to Trump the US captured Maduro and his wife and are flying them out of the country.
Two hours later and it doesn’t look like an actual invasion, at least not with this initial strike - the US just announced we’ll release a statement when we’ve finished withdrawing our aircraft and there’s been no sign of troops being deployed. The speculation from the various news orgs has been that this was just to intimidate Maduro after his recent apparently successful meeting with the Chinese envoy. Venezuela has begun mobilizing it’s military in response (pretty reasonable) and there’s still no information about strikes outside Caracas, so at the moment the information we have is pointing to this being limited in scope.
I mean, at the rate this is escalating, this could easily be a full-blown invasion by the end of the month. It’s crazy how obliviously stupid this administration is when it comes to geopolitics. With how incompetent they are, I understand they think this could be some quick special operation or whatever, but they’re fucking around real fucking close to kicking off a world war where we all find out. And let’s be clear: nuclear war(if it goes that far) will not end in a world like fallout; we will absolutely all die and take most and probably all life with us. So on top of the obvious imperialist evil bullshit, this is even existentially stupid.
No argument about the escalation rate, just that at the moment this attack does not appear to be part of an active invasion.
I am not a professional wonk I confess, just a talented amateur, but I find it unlikely that the invasion of Venezuela is going to result in nuclear weapons being deployed. I just don’t believe China cares enough about VZ to end the world in defense of it’s currently fairly limited interests there.
Oh, I wasn’t suggesting that this was an invasion or that an invasion would necessitate ww3, more so agreeing that this isn’t an invasion(given the lack of scale) yet noting that the rate of escalation in Venezuela has been unprecedented. So quick that it could be escalated to a full-on invasion by the end of the month. Also considering the incompetence of the trump admin in foreign diplomacy, the involvement of multiple world powers, and the sheer tension between those worlds powers, it’s not improbable that war in Venezuela could escalate to ww3. Given that we just straight up have never seen actual direct full-scale war between two nuclear powers, it’s also possible that this all leads to nuclear war. These are all hypotheticals and do require something extra to each step to come to fruition, but they’re not that far from plausible and my point is that the sheer stupidity of the trump administration is enough of a wild card to make that a possibility. Personally, I doubt that series of events will happen, we’ll probably have some stupid spec-ops bay-of-pigs part 2(but even stupider this time) kind of scenario.
But yeah, I’m generally agreeing with you and pointing out how stupid it is with an extreme hypothetical example.
Update: apparently this was a kidnapping, according to Trump the US captured Maduro and his wife and are flying them out of the country.
Two hours later and it doesn’t look like an actual invasion, at least not with this initial strike - the US just announced we’ll release a statement when we’ve finished withdrawing our aircraft and there’s been no sign of troops being deployed. The speculation from the various news orgs has been that this was just to intimidate Maduro after his recent apparently successful meeting with the Chinese envoy. Venezuela has begun mobilizing it’s military in response (pretty reasonable) and there’s still no information about strikes outside Caracas, so at the moment the information we have is pointing to this being limited in scope.
I mean, at the rate this is escalating, this could easily be a full-blown invasion by the end of the month. It’s crazy how obliviously stupid this administration is when it comes to geopolitics. With how incompetent they are, I understand they think this could be some quick special operation or whatever, but they’re fucking around real fucking close to kicking off a world war where we all find out. And let’s be clear: nuclear war(if it goes that far) will not end in a world like fallout; we will absolutely all die and take most and probably all life with us. So on top of the obvious imperialist evil bullshit, this is even existentially stupid.
No argument about the escalation rate, just that at the moment this attack does not appear to be part of an active invasion.
I am not a professional wonk I confess, just a talented amateur, but I find it unlikely that the invasion of Venezuela is going to result in nuclear weapons being deployed. I just don’t believe China cares enough about VZ to end the world in defense of it’s currently fairly limited interests there.
Oh, I wasn’t suggesting that this was an invasion or that an invasion would necessitate ww3, more so agreeing that this isn’t an invasion(given the lack of scale) yet noting that the rate of escalation in Venezuela has been unprecedented. So quick that it could be escalated to a full-on invasion by the end of the month. Also considering the incompetence of the trump admin in foreign diplomacy, the involvement of multiple world powers, and the sheer tension between those worlds powers, it’s not improbable that war in Venezuela could escalate to ww3. Given that we just straight up have never seen actual direct full-scale war between two nuclear powers, it’s also possible that this all leads to nuclear war. These are all hypotheticals and do require something extra to each step to come to fruition, but they’re not that far from plausible and my point is that the sheer stupidity of the trump administration is enough of a wild card to make that a possibility. Personally, I doubt that series of events will happen, we’ll probably have some stupid spec-ops bay-of-pigs part 2(but even stupider this time) kind of scenario.
But yeah, I’m generally agreeing with you and pointing out how stupid it is with an extreme hypothetical example.
Ah, in that case I wholeheartedly agree