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Cake day: July 7th, 2023

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  • Now that people are shunting easier requests to local models and sending the harder problems out, the hyper scalers have less income, so they have to charge more.

    While you’re 100% correct about the fact that this is happening, and it is a serious problem for the hyper-scalers, it’s really, really important to note that even before this started happening, LLMs were already hilariously unprofitable, both on the software and the hardware side. For the AI companies, there is simply no way to charge people what the models actually cost to run and still turn a profit. On the data-centre side, the turnover on burned out GPUs is going to annihilate any hope of profitability. They’re treating as capex what is essentially a consumable and their business models simply do not account for this reality.

    The behaviour you’re identifying here is basically just a swift kick in the guts to someone who was already bleeding to death from several bullet wounds. Seriously unhelpful, but not remotely the impending cause of death.


  • Basically, yes.

    This comes back to the basic problem with LLMs as a business proposition; any digital service can either be cheap and frivolous, or expensive and necessary. You can even, if you do things right, be cheap and necessary. But you cannot ever be expensive and frivolous.

    LLMs were supposed to be expensive and necessary, but it turns out they’re just so unreliable that they simply cannot perform an essential role. They must always be disposable; fun, or useful, but never essential.

    Which leaves only cheap and frivolous as an option. And they’re just not cheap, nor does it seem likely that they ever will be.

    So you get Character.ai filling chapter 11, because people simply will not ever pay what it actually costs to run these models just so that they can have a computer program pretend to be Lois Griffin for them.






  • It’s both! They took all the game structure of a MOBA - the creep waves, the lanes, the towers, the upgrades - and paired that with the movement and gameplay design of a hero shooter.

    In practice, I lean more on calling it the latter, because it feels a lot more like a hero shooter in how it plays, despite having so many recognizable MOBA elements.

    Where it really breaks the MOBA mold is in the hero design. There aren’t really any fixed roles, and the meta has remained relatively fluid. You don’t have things like a designated jungler, tank, AD carry, any of that sort of thing. Builds are quite flexible and most characters can be built in a number of different ways.











  • There’s a lot to be said about how GURPS is clunky - and it is, even when you’re not digging into the insane optional rules - but I think its biggest flaw, by far, was that it had very little appreciation for genre. GURPS was built on the notion that a single system could tell any story, but what that meant in practice was that a single system could tell a story with different trappings. GURPS was set dressing applied to a core system that ultimately imposes certain genre constraints on anything you tried to run with it. This is true of all systems, but GURPS tries to act like it isn’t.

    That’s not to say that it’s universally bad. A lot of the settings for it do fit well in the mold it offers. Alpha Centauri is fantastic in GURPS, and it’s a wonderful system for the huge line of historical settings it offers, if you’re looking for a more grounded, simulationist take. But there are also plenty that don’t. Illuminati University is brilliant but has no business being a GURPS setting. That game desperately wants to be PbtA. Ditto Discworld. Star Trek makes no sense; that game probably wants to be running on something like Cortex, the relationship engine would work beautifully with Trek’s tone and themes.

    God help you if you actually think the WoD conversions are a good idea. And who in their right mind ever thought it was the right system for Hellboy?

    No system can ever be universal, because roleplaying games are stories, not historical re-enactments. That matters.




  • No, because that’s a really bad idea.

    Look, I get where you’re coming from, but if you already have something that’s the gold standard for secure encrypted messaging, you don’t try to reinvent that. First, it’s money you don’t have to spend, and second, in the process of getting it right you get to discover all the ways they got it wrong. Why introduce that unknown element?

    To be clear, the CAF aren’t texting each other fire coordinates. They have secure radios and DND email that’s only accessible on secured devices. That’s where all the secret secret stuff goes. But there’s a lot of stuff that happens day to day that still needs to be secure, but accessible. In Latvia, especially, our soldiers are always being tracked by Russian operatives. You’re literally not allowed to go anywhere alone because you could get black bagged. So if you need to text your unit about drinks plans, that shit needs to be secure. Soldiers need safe ways of communicating without a $20,000 radio set.

    Signal works and it works well. One of the biggest mistakes in military procurement is trying to make something new when the tool you need already exists. Especially when that existing tool comes at a low low cost of free.