Yeah, shortages will likely start in a couple months, and then there’s going to be a spike in demand for fuel in fall when it’s planting season. And if farmers can’t afford the fuel to plant, there there could be a food crisis across Europe. It’s entirely possible Russia is waiting to see how bad the situation in Europe gets in the next couple of months before escalating.
I can’t see how going back to the status quo after 4 years of war would be possible politically in Russia. I expect that any scenario where the war ends will result in Ukraine having a compliant regime and forced neutrality. It will not be allowed to join NATO or EU at this point, and there will be a big cap on the size of the army. So, I think the Georgian scenario is the most likely one as well.


A few games I really enjoyed Planet of Lana which just had a new instalment, Tunic, Selaco, Arco, Spritfall, Bionic Ban, Prodeus, Neva, Children of the Sun, and Children of Morta.
Oh that sucks about the power, and I saw their report. We’ll have to chat more about it, but reads like copium to me. I do think it’s an indication that they see the gig is up now. Another sign is that Europe is now scrambling to find a negotiator, definitely not a thing they’d be doing if they genuinely thought they were winning.
Agree with all that, the harvest season is going to be when the fuel demand spikes, and that’s also when the reserves are projected to be depleted. So, that could be the crisis moment. And from what I saw there was another Oreshnik strike last night, but I don’t think it really has the same effect at this point. Yes, a bunch of stuff in Kiev is burning now, but it’s not really going to change anything. I’m now convinced that economy will be the deciding factor in the end. Speaking of that, did you see how European Commission put out a report saying that Russian GDP growth for 2026 is expected at 1.3%, and EU was lowered to 1.1%.
If they’re saying this openly, I’m guessing the real situation is a lot worse then they’re letting on. We’ll see if they manage to pull a rabbit out of a hat to solve the fuel crisis, but I just don’t see where the fuel is going to come from. And Europe now competes with Asia for whatever fuel is on the market too. So, next few months will be very interesting.


I use these tools extensively, and they absolutely do not replace the need for a coder. The reality is that they’re fundamentally incapable of telling whether something is correct or not in the business sense. And Simply churning out a ton of wrong code really fast doesn’t actually help anybody.
They certainly can be a help for a developer. For example, I can fluently write code in any language now even if I’m not familiar with the stack or syntax. A skill that would’ve taken months of effort to build previously. But in terms of actual workflow, it’s not all that much faster because I still have to review what the tool is doing, and human comprehension is still the bottleneck in the whole process.


back before the days of hard drives being a standard thing :)


love to see it


I’ve been using LLMs pretty extensively. These tools are effective, they can solve hard problems, and they allow me to work on a wider range of tasks than could before.
But, they’re also jagged in terms of functionality. When you work with a human, you can learn what their core competencies are, and then if you give them a task that falls within that domain, you can be reasonably sure they’ll finish it correctly. That’s not the case with LLMs. It might do one task brilliantly, and a next similar task, it just shits the bed on. And since it has no understanding of the task in a human sense, it can’t self correct, learn or improve. All its doing is stringing tokens together based on probability.
So, you need a human in the loop to review everything that it’s doing. Reviewing everything the model outputs takes a lot of time, hence actual productivity gains aren’t all that significant. Having an LLM will allow a backend developer to work on the frontend with fairly low friction for example, but they’re still going to build stuff roughly at the same pace.
Companies that try to replace humans with LLMs will soon find that they end up with a whole bunch of code that doesn’t actually work, and they have no hope of fixing. The fact that LLMs can produce a lot of code very quickly is precisely the danger because nobody knows what that code is doing, and it’s almost certainly not correct.


That’s the beauty of Chinese state driven economy. The state can pour money into new technologies at a scale that no private business would ever do, which makes it possible to get to the point where new tech becomes commercially viable.
We’ll have to see what happens in the next three month when the real energy shortages hit https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/oil-market-clock-is-ticking-supply-crunch-looms-2026-05-21/
I still think this will be the big deciding factor. Europe can talk a big talk, but people have to eat. As Lenin put it, every society is three meals away from chaos. You saw how even Kid Starver tried to roll back sanctions on Russian energy, that tells you all you need to know about how bad the situation is.


I mean that fits given the US is a gerontocracy.
read all about it on your beloved wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Democratic_centralism
literally every survey done in China by western orgs confirms that it is in fact a democracy, and one functioning better than any western attempt I might add


I mean we’ve seen how prices for Chinese solar and EVs dropped once production ramped up, I expect we’ll see the same with memory and eventually chips too.
Ah no worries, I made a community and a thread, tagged you both in it.
O7