The scenario - a 10-day closure of the Strait of Hormuz - is speculative. But every number on the HUD, every stakeholder voice, every threshold that triggers a cascade, and every dispatch echoing real-world reporting is anchored to a named, published source.

Steering maritime traffic through the narrows, you begin to see how - and whom - this conflict touches. That there are no winners. That when we talk about the economy, we forget the civilian toll.