Seems like what Russia is going to do is take Slavyansk and Kramatorsk
It would be a major success for Russia if it could capture Sloviansk and Kramatorsk by the end of the year.
But that is not the whole of Donbas.
For the most part, everything depends on how Russia handles strikes deep within its own territory.
Last night, Ukraine launched an attack involving more than 600 drones.
Russia is currently trying to push drone launch sites back beyond the Dnieper River. They are destroying gas stations and truck stops where drone launchers might potentially be located; on this side of the Dnieper, the Russians have already destroyed 160 gas stations. So far, there are no fuel shortages in our city.
In Russia—even as far away as Siberia—there are massive, miles-long lines for gasoline.
As I said back in the spring, Russia needs a decisive push to turn the tide. Right now, things aren’t going very well for Russia in that regard.
Russia is also currently losing the information war.
Basically, Russia is winning and right now situation is under control.
Not quite, Comrade. Right now, the situation at the front is mixed. The AFU is still conducting successful counter-offensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Russia has lost the territory it had previously captured there.
Russia is seeing successes in other sectors as well, though the pace is not as dynamic. In some areas, the situation has been at a standstill for months.
You surely realize, Comrade, that Russia’s very slow rate of advance—combined with the fact that Ukraine can strike Moscow—is precisely what convinced Trump to drastically change his opinion.
No matter how weak the US might be, Russia is going to face a very difficult time in the coming months.
One more brief note: Ukraine struck deep inside Russia with Storm Shadow missiles for the first time—this set a precedent.
Basically, if Ukraine can disrupt fuel supply in Russia, Russia can disrupt it in Ukraine on a far bigger scale. And that’s what’s happening now that they started attacking gas stations and other infrastructure systematically.
Russia has been shit at information war since the very start. They never really cared about it. It’s possibly a mistake, but that’s just how it is.
And we have this same discussion literally every few months. You see the propaganda campaign, start talking about how Russia is in trouble, then a month later it turns out none of it actually mattered and Russia is still advancing. This has been going on for 4 years now.
I don’t think the situation is mixed at all. Ukraine is about to lose key strategic strongholds and there’s nothing past them all the way to Dnepr. Meanwhile, the gains Ukraine makes are ephemeral because there’s no manpower to hold them. Even when the AFU manages to take some territory, it ends up getting rolled back almost immediately.
I do think we’ll see the west throw all they can into the war now because we’re coming to the end here. And yes, the whole drone campaign was for Trump, he’s the audience. They convinced him to get back into it now. But you understand that the US hasn’t been able to do anything for the past 4 years, and they don’t have any new tricks to play here.
And you saw what Putin and others are saying in Russia now. These strikes are NATO strikes into Russia and now there is a serious talk of retaliation against NATO countries directly. I think this could happen.
It would be a major success for Russia if it could capture Sloviansk and Kramatorsk by the end of the year.
But that is not the whole of Donbas.
For the most part, everything depends on how Russia handles strikes deep within its own territory.
Last night, Ukraine launched an attack involving more than 600 drones.
Russia is currently trying to push drone launch sites back beyond the Dnieper River. They are destroying gas stations and truck stops where drone launchers might potentially be located; on this side of the Dnieper, the Russians have already destroyed 160 gas stations. So far, there are no fuel shortages in our city.
In Russia—even as far away as Siberia—there are massive, miles-long lines for gasoline.
As I said back in the spring, Russia needs a decisive push to turn the tide. Right now, things aren’t going very well for Russia in that regard.
Russia is also currently losing the information war.
Not quite, Comrade. Right now, the situation at the front is mixed. The AFU is still conducting successful counter-offensive operations in the Zaporizhzhia sector. Russia has lost the territory it had previously captured there.
Russia is seeing successes in other sectors as well, though the pace is not as dynamic. In some areas, the situation has been at a standstill for months.
You surely realize, Comrade, that Russia’s very slow rate of advance—combined with the fact that Ukraine can strike Moscow—is precisely what convinced Trump to drastically change his opinion.
No matter how weak the US might be, Russia is going to face a very difficult time in the coming months.
One more brief note: Ukraine struck deep inside Russia with Storm Shadow missiles for the first time—this set a precedent.
Basically, if Ukraine can disrupt fuel supply in Russia, Russia can disrupt it in Ukraine on a far bigger scale. And that’s what’s happening now that they started attacking gas stations and other infrastructure systematically.
Russia has been shit at information war since the very start. They never really cared about it. It’s possibly a mistake, but that’s just how it is.
And we have this same discussion literally every few months. You see the propaganda campaign, start talking about how Russia is in trouble, then a month later it turns out none of it actually mattered and Russia is still advancing. This has been going on for 4 years now.
I don’t think the situation is mixed at all. Ukraine is about to lose key strategic strongholds and there’s nothing past them all the way to Dnepr. Meanwhile, the gains Ukraine makes are ephemeral because there’s no manpower to hold them. Even when the AFU manages to take some territory, it ends up getting rolled back almost immediately.
I do think we’ll see the west throw all they can into the war now because we’re coming to the end here. And yes, the whole drone campaign was for Trump, he’s the audience. They convinced him to get back into it now. But you understand that the US hasn’t been able to do anything for the past 4 years, and they don’t have any new tricks to play here.
And you saw what Putin and others are saying in Russia now. These strikes are NATO strikes into Russia and now there is a serious talk of retaliation against NATO countries directly. I think this could happen.