I’m expecting Sloviansk/Kramatorsk will get taken this summer
))) No, Comrade, that’s unlikely.
Ukraine has massed forces in the Zaporizhzhia sector and intends to launch a counterattack. The Russians are currently trying to disrupt this counteroffensive.
Ukraine definitely still has potential.
and why there’s such a major panic now
I monitor the mood among Russian pro-military bloggers. There was some confusion when Ukraine began actively striking deep into Russian territory, though the panic seems to have subsided somewhat now.
Belousov recently met with these bloggers in person; the key issue on the agenda was countering UAVs.
We can see that a feedback loop exists within the Russian Federation.
Lately, strikes deep inside Russia have become less effective, and it is evident that countermeasures are being implemented; Russia is successfully countering these new threats.
As for Ukraine, there is no panic there so far—except, perhaps, among those being sent on “meat-grinder” assaults. But no one asks for their opinion.
And nobody cared before because people were getting grabbed from eastern Ukraine, now the kidnappings are starting to happen in western Ukraine more and more. I think it’s also an indication of how desperate the situation is. See how Europeans are now trying to send people back too. There are real manpower problems nobody wants to talk about.
Yes, I agree with you, but this isn’t aimed at the immediate present—it’s looking toward the future. Once this becomes widespread, then we can talk about a catastrophic shortage of mobilization resources within Ukraine. For now, these are just plans.
As for the current situation: recently, the EU banned granting refugee status to newly arrived Ukrainians of conscription age. Right now, the goal is to round up everyone inside Ukraine; they’ll go after the refugees later. I think there are enough people here to last another year…
Unfortunately, my outlook on this isn’t quite as rosy as yours, Comrade…)))
This breakthrough occurred because Ukraine is mounting counterattacks in other sectors of the front; it is not currently in a state of purely static defense.
And Sloviansk is a symbolic city for both Russia and Ukraine. The “Russian Spring” of 2014 began there. The battle for it will be fierce. If you like, you can call Sloviansk “Stalingrad”—and you wouldn’t be wrong! It strikes me as the key battle of this war.
I guess we’ll see, I think the only potential left is in the media at this point. And that’s precisely why the west is in a panic again.
I’ve found Russian military bloggers are drama queens of the highest order. They’re really not a useful gauge for what’s actually happening.
Also, think about this logically, if the AFU had serious fighting capacity left then they would be defending Sloviansk/Kramatorsk right now instead of doing raids in Zaporozhye. This is by far the most important part of the front. They know they can’t hold it, so they’re doing ‘offensives’ to demonstrate that there’s fighting capacity left. These have no staying power.
))) No, Comrade, that’s unlikely.
Ukraine has massed forces in the Zaporizhzhia sector and intends to launch a counterattack. The Russians are currently trying to disrupt this counteroffensive.
Ukraine definitely still has potential.
I monitor the mood among Russian pro-military bloggers. There was some confusion when Ukraine began actively striking deep into Russian territory, though the panic seems to have subsided somewhat now.
Belousov recently met with these bloggers in person; the key issue on the agenda was countering UAVs.
We can see that a feedback loop exists within the Russian Federation.
Lately, strikes deep inside Russia have become less effective, and it is evident that countermeasures are being implemented; Russia is successfully countering these new threats.
As for Ukraine, there is no panic there so far—except, perhaps, among those being sent on “meat-grinder” assaults. But no one asks for their opinion.
Yes, I agree with you, but this isn’t aimed at the immediate present—it’s looking toward the future. Once this becomes widespread, then we can talk about a catastrophic shortage of mobilization resources within Ukraine. For now, these are just plans.
As for the current situation: recently, the EU banned granting refugee status to newly arrived Ukrainians of conscription age. Right now, the goal is to round up everyone inside Ukraine; they’ll go after the refugees later. I think there are enough people here to last another year…
Unfortunately, my outlook on this isn’t quite as rosy as yours, Comrade…)))
Yes, his description is roughly accurate.
This breakthrough occurred because Ukraine is mounting counterattacks in other sectors of the front; it is not currently in a state of purely static defense.
And Sloviansk is a symbolic city for both Russia and Ukraine. The “Russian Spring” of 2014 began there. The battle for it will be fierce. If you like, you can call Sloviansk “Stalingrad”—and you wouldn’t be wrong! It strikes me as the key battle of this war.
I guess we’ll see, I think the only potential left is in the media at this point. And that’s precisely why the west is in a panic again.
I’ve found Russian military bloggers are drama queens of the highest order. They’re really not a useful gauge for what’s actually happening.
Also, think about this logically, if the AFU had serious fighting capacity left then they would be defending Sloviansk/Kramatorsk right now instead of doing raids in Zaporozhye. This is by far the most important part of the front. They know they can’t hold it, so they’re doing ‘offensives’ to demonstrate that there’s fighting capacity left. These have no staying power.