But it goes both ways. Starship is about jump starting a much larger space economy, but it also requires a much larger space economy.
Falcon 9 is sufficient for today’s space economy. It already carries 80% by mass of the worlds launches. As the economy gradually grows, it’s easy to see it increment to keep pace, or other companies/countries growing into bigger shares. In this world, starship is a waste of time and money.
But if we get that paradigm shift, suddenly starship is at the center
In this world, starship is a waste of time and money.
Well I don’t think I agree with these statements at all. The thing is, if/when they get starship to work, not only will it be able to lift significantly more mass to orbit than the falcon 9, it will likely be cheaper per launch. Not cheaper per kg to orbit, but cheaper overall than launching a falcon 9 (remember, they need to build a new falcon second stage for each launch). That is such a significant improvement that I’d argue that its development is totally worthwhile even if the demand for launches were to stay stagnant.
And honestly, we definitely need some heavy lift rocket. The Saturn V doesn’t exist anymore and the SLS is… economically unrealistic.
But it goes both ways. Starship is about jump starting a much larger space economy, but it also requires a much larger space economy.
Falcon 9 is sufficient for today’s space economy. It already carries 80% by mass of the worlds launches. As the economy gradually grows, it’s easy to see it increment to keep pace, or other companies/countries growing into bigger shares. In this world, starship is a waste of time and money.
But if we get that paradigm shift, suddenly starship is at the center
…
Well I don’t think I agree with these statements at all. The thing is, if/when they get starship to work, not only will it be able to lift significantly more mass to orbit than the falcon 9, it will likely be cheaper per launch. Not cheaper per kg to orbit, but cheaper overall than launching a falcon 9 (remember, they need to build a new falcon second stage for each launch). That is such a significant improvement that I’d argue that its development is totally worthwhile even if the demand for launches were to stay stagnant.
And honestly, we definitely need some heavy lift rocket. The Saturn V doesn’t exist anymore and the SLS is… economically unrealistic.