American (maybe more broadly Western) Computer Consumer Products companies are indeed getting fucked.
The thing is, that doesn’t mean that the Future is one were Consumers are forced to not have PCs and have all their computing needs served from Big Companies’ Servers.
I think, going from evidenc of the former to expecting the latter is a jump too far to take since it’s only looking at one side of the equation in one part of the World.
It’s perfectly possible that it’s the Chinese companies that end up gaining from this, similarly to how in the EV space the result of Western auto companies not offering what most consumers actually wanted (which wasn’t a Tesla, since those are too expensive for most people) was that the Chinese created and expanded that industry are now handily outcompetting those Western companies in their home markets.
Chinese parts and Mini-PC (an area where there are still a lot of products well bellow $500) manufacturers are still happilly selling their products to buyers from all over the World on platforms like AliExpress and, as we’ve recently discovered, Chinese memory makers (actual makers using actual chip fabs, not memory module assemblers) are expanding their production and selling more and more product to consumer market module assemblers in China and Taiwan, filling in the void created by the big memory makers focusing on supplying the AI datacenter boom.
(PS: That said, the China side seems to be covered in the video)
Further, there are other natural reactions in other areas which go against a dystopian future of No More Personal in Personal Computing - for example, software makers, most notably game makers, when they’re scoping their products to the computing power that the expect will be available in 5 years, aren’t going to be targetting hardware significativelly more powerful than what is common now (because if they did otherwise their stuff wouldn’t sell), which means that naturally (though with some delay) the demand for more computing power and storage in personal devices is adjusting to the reduced availability of new devices with more storage and computing power, so rather that demand rather than going to go up it’s probably going to stagnate, meaning that the future is most likely one of people running old computers for longer and just repairing what breaks with parts from that generation (one where DDR4 memory is more popular than DDR5) that one where everybody (both consumers and software makers) meekly accepts that the only option is computation running on servers (something which, by the way, game makers have already tried with things like Stadia, which failed miserably).
In summary, yeah the consumer personal computing hardware industry in the West is hurting, but just that is nowhere enough to support this idea that in the Future, Worldwide there will be no more Personal Computers.
(PPS: My expectation of the likely future is probably closest in that video with that of the guy from Corsair).
Is there already x86 silicon from china that is viable? I would hope this at least gives risc architectures a goodd boost, for industry the biggest problem seems to be decent documentation, in embedded stuff hardware on paper often looks good but lacking support can be a huge dealbreaker for developing firmware.
American (maybe more broadly Western) Computer Consumer Products companies are indeed getting fucked.
The thing is, that doesn’t mean that the Future is one were Consumers are forced to not have PCs and have all their computing needs served from Big Companies’ Servers.
I think, going from evidenc of the former to expecting the latter is a jump too far to take since it’s only looking at one side of the equation in one part of the World.
It’s perfectly possible that it’s the Chinese companies that end up gaining from this, similarly to how in the EV space the result of Western auto companies not offering what most consumers actually wanted (which wasn’t a Tesla, since those are too expensive for most people) was that the Chinese created and expanded that industry are now handily outcompetting those Western companies in their home markets.
Chinese parts and Mini-PC (an area where there are still a lot of products well bellow $500) manufacturers are still happilly selling their products to buyers from all over the World on platforms like AliExpress and, as we’ve recently discovered, Chinese memory makers (actual makers using actual chip fabs, not memory module assemblers) are expanding their production and selling more and more product to consumer market module assemblers in China and Taiwan, filling in the void created by the big memory makers focusing on supplying the AI datacenter boom.
(PS: That said, the China side seems to be covered in the video)
Further, there are other natural reactions in other areas which go against a dystopian future of No More Personal in Personal Computing - for example, software makers, most notably game makers, when they’re scoping their products to the computing power that the expect will be available in 5 years, aren’t going to be targetting hardware significativelly more powerful than what is common now (because if they did otherwise their stuff wouldn’t sell), which means that naturally (though with some delay) the demand for more computing power and storage in personal devices is adjusting to the reduced availability of new devices with more storage and computing power, so rather that demand rather than going to go up it’s probably going to stagnate, meaning that the future is most likely one of people running old computers for longer and just repairing what breaks with parts from that generation (one where DDR4 memory is more popular than DDR5) that one where everybody (both consumers and software makers) meekly accepts that the only option is computation running on servers (something which, by the way, game makers have already tried with things like Stadia, which failed miserably).
In summary, yeah the consumer personal computing hardware industry in the West is hurting, but just that is nowhere enough to support this idea that in the Future, Worldwide there will be no more Personal Computers.
(PPS: My expectation of the likely future is probably closest in that video with that of the guy from Corsair).
Is there already x86 silicon from china that is viable? I would hope this at least gives risc architectures a goodd boost, for industry the biggest problem seems to be decent documentation, in embedded stuff hardware on paper often looks good but lacking support can be a huge dealbreaker for developing firmware.