yeah this is kind of the pattern with ram price fluctuations.
Ram demand goes up.
Ram prices go up.
Ram makers say they’ll increase capacity.
Nothing happens, they may open new factories but close older lines, or they may start to open another fab but then for whatever reason it doesn’t work.
The decision to build the new Boise fab in question (to start production in 2027) was made in September 2022. ChatGPT was made available to the public in November 2022. The new fab is likely not a response to significantly increased demand at the time but an investment made in expectation of increased demand (GPT-4 could already be tested in 2020, maybe they foresaw the LLM hype). They make DRAM. Isn’t it likely that prices are going to drop once production starts at the new fab?
Isn’t it likely that prices are going to drop once production starts at the new fab?
depends on the market; one of the things I’ve seen repeatedly is new fabs opening to produce newer processes - replacing older fabs with larger nodes that then are shut down.
sometimes it’s advantageous to keep the old lines going and eek every bit of market share out of them, sometimes it’s prohibitive to keep older processes open.
but to respond to your query: in this market? in these crazy times? I’d be striking while the iron is hot and getting the maximum I could from every dram chip because the valuations of the hyperscalers and the surrounding ecosystem - open AI, anthropic, meta, google, nvidia etc., will continue to gobble it up until the bubble blows up in their faces.
None of the fines for these things are enough. It should be, like, the company is nationalized. The leadership is sentenced to years of community service and barred from working in the industry for life.
Fucking corporate America. I was fired for having a disability, specifically and intentionally by my boss and her manager. Neither has any direct accountability - both were terminated as a result of the findings of a federal and state investigation, but the company will pay for the damages. They both failed upward, getting higher positions at other companies, while I’ve struggled to find employment, something already difficult due to the stigma of my age, disability, and gender, but now with word of my termination having spread through the quite small pool of people who work in my field.
Uuugh, fuck that! I am so deeply sorry. I’m disabled and of an age and gender that get heavily discriminated against, too…so I feel you. I’ve been there. It’s so awful and makes you feel like shit. I sincerely hope things get better for you ASAP! Here’s some Internet hugs, if you want them: 🫂
Oh wow, reading the wiki you linked, looks like that one exec really learned their lesson \s
On 5 April 2006, Sun Woo Lee, Senior Manager of DRAM at Samsung Electronics, entered into a plea bargain with the US Government for his involvement in the price fixing conspiracy.[5] Following the plea agreement he was sentenced to 8 months in prison and fined US$250,000.[6] Lee was subsequently promoted to President of Samsung Germany in 2009, and then President of Samsung Europe in 2014
edit/update: Oh, wow so Sun Woo Lee actually really lucked out as Korea focused more on making an example of the Samsung heir apparent https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Jae-yong
8 months in prison sucks, I totally concede that. Yet literally the deal they made looks like they were asked “Would you take the fall and go to prison for 8 months and then get paid millions per year afterward?”
Not just lose your job, but your entire career as the prison record will come up in your background check and the news will also be on the internet forever, the prison / slavery industry is a well oiled machine
That means that he managed to keep the fine small enough that Samsung made significantly more money off the price fixing than they ever lost from the fine. Hasn’t changed
😡
coupled with the fact that the cartels refuse to expand production; this tells me they’re realistic about the moment - it’s not going to be a decade of future humongous peak RAM consumption, because otherwise they’d be blisteringly stupid (to lose out on those potential increased sales)… https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/memory-makers-have-no-plans-to-increase-production-despite-crushing-ram-shortages-modest-2026-increase-predicted-as-dram-makers-hedge-their-ai-bets
Micron has been building a new fab in Boise which is set to output RAM starting 2027, no?
https://www.kivitv.com/southeast-boise/everything-you-need-to-know-about-microns-massive-boise-manufacturing-expansion
Apparently another fab is planned already.
https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/micron-announces-groundbreaking-historic-new-york-megafab
Infineon is also looking to expand production, if I understand correctly, though RAM may not be their main thing.
https://www.stern.de/gesellschaft/regional/sachsen/chipindustrie--halbleiterproduktion--infineon-ist--ready--fuer-wachstum-37531970.html
yeah this is kind of the pattern with ram price fluctuations.
Ram demand goes up.
Ram prices go up.
Ram makers say they’ll increase capacity.
Nothing happens, they may open new factories but close older lines, or they may start to open another fab but then for whatever reason it doesn’t work.
Ram prices go up.
The decision to build the new Boise fab in question (to start production in 2027) was made in September 2022. ChatGPT was made available to the public in November 2022. The new fab is likely not a response to significantly increased demand at the time but an investment made in expectation of increased demand (GPT-4 could already be tested in 2020, maybe they foresaw the LLM hype). They make DRAM. Isn’t it likely that prices are going to drop once production starts at the new fab?
https://investors.micron.com/news-releases/news-release-details/micron-invest-15-billion-new-idaho-fab-bringing-leading-edge
depends on the market; one of the things I’ve seen repeatedly is new fabs opening to produce newer processes - replacing older fabs with larger nodes that then are shut down.
sometimes it’s advantageous to keep the old lines going and eek every bit of market share out of them, sometimes it’s prohibitive to keep older processes open.
but to respond to your query: in this market? in these crazy times? I’d be striking while the iron is hot and getting the maximum I could from every dram chip because the valuations of the hyperscalers and the surrounding ecosystem - open AI, anthropic, meta, google, nvidia etc., will continue to gobble it up until the bubble blows up in their faces.
None of the fines for these things are enough. It should be, like, the company is nationalized. The leadership is sentenced to years of community service and barred from working in the industry for life.
Fucking corporate America. I was fired for having a disability, specifically and intentionally by my boss and her manager. Neither has any direct accountability - both were terminated as a result of the findings of a federal and state investigation, but the company will pay for the damages. They both failed upward, getting higher positions at other companies, while I’ve struggled to find employment, something already difficult due to the stigma of my age, disability, and gender, but now with word of my termination having spread through the quite small pool of people who work in my field.
Uuugh, fuck that! I am so deeply sorry. I’m disabled and of an age and gender that get heavily discriminated against, too…so I feel you. I’ve been there. It’s so awful and makes you feel like shit. I sincerely hope things get better for you ASAP! Here’s some Internet hugs, if you want them: 🫂
Probably only gotta do that once for things to really change
You gotta give a booster shot every once in a while to remind them.
Oh wow, reading the wiki you linked, looks like that one exec really learned their lesson \s
edit/update: Oh, wow so Sun Woo Lee actually really lucked out as Korea focused more on making an example of the Samsung heir apparent https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lee_Jae-yong
8 months in prison sucks, I totally concede that. Yet literally the deal they made looks like they were asked “Would you take the fall and go to prison for 8 months and then get paid millions per year afterward?”
Going to jail as a poor person means you lose your job
Going to jail as a rich person apparently gets you a promotion
Interesting
Not just lose your job, but your entire career as the prison record will come up in your background check and the news will also be on the internet forever, the prison / slavery industry is a well oiled machine
That means that he managed to keep the fine small enough that Samsung made significantly more money off the price fixing than they ever lost from the fine. Hasn’t changed
https://www.axios.com/google-facebook-fines-profits--134d3567-1052-4d9d-aa70-dc7c25ed4ebf.html
Cost of doing business really
Doesn’t the mob and other syndicates do something like that as well? Gotta do some time and not snitch to move up in the ranks.
“They gave their freedom for this company!” - Some corrupt executive somewhere