Complication is, broadly speaking, much of the decision making only thinks to when their current bonus stock vests. So long term thinking is not well rewarded. If you think long term, then your short term thinking competitor screws you up long enough anyway.

I strongly suspect the next step is for a dramatic reduction in the compensation for software development. If it’s not really significantly any more profitable than another trade, then you won’t see as many people who seem to actively hate it trying to do it anyway.

Reminds me of a conversation I overhead, a guy trying to impress a girl with how much money he was going to get back in college. He was going into software development to make big money. Girl asks “but I thought you were majoring in communications, why do that if you want to do software?”. “Oh, well, I tried but I couldn’t understand the course work, so dropped it, figured I’d just get some degree, and then just get some certification and do software development for the money without the dumb coursework”. Basically since the late 90s we’ve had a flood of those types, and this phenomenon just exacerbates the problem.