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Cake day: June 16th, 2023

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  • Challenge there being that seems to have proven elusive. It’s not too surprising, but trying to use machine learning for robotics is actually really hard.

    Driving is much easier, training data with video, audio, and other sensor input complete with how the human manipulated steering and two pedals.

    But direct human interaction with the environment is both much more complicated than three controls and is not instrumented. They are trying to build training data from remote operators, but it turns out we aren’t very good at controlling these things remotely anywhere close to acting directly. We are terrible teachers and there’s a fraction of the actionable data that other more successful models had to work with.

    If an AI sees a video of someone doing something, it can make a similar video, but can’t model how that might map to what it would see as unrelated motor and hydraulic operation.


  • Note that Tesla was clearly a viable business, I don’t see the justification for it being 3 times the value of ford, gm, Toyota, and Honda all put together.

    Generally people are not challenging the fundamental possibility of these as viable business, just that they don’t make sense at their valuations.

    Though I’ll agree that open ai particularly should get some skepticism. To the extent that actionable business models might emerge, I don’t see openai actually in a position to be a big party of any of it. Microsoft and Anthropic seem to mostly own business revenue, ChatGPT is generally not even providing the models people select when they are able to choose.


  • OEM license revenue represents a tiny tiny bit of their financials these days. They could just charge nothing for it and business wise no one probably notice much of a difference.

    It is foundational to a lot of what they do, but older devices are just as good for their subscription and tie in revenue. Hell I use my work subscription for office from Linux, complete with OneDrive filesystem synchronization. Microsoft gets all their money from my headcount even as I don’t even use Windows.

    But that capex could bite them hard if revenue falls to follow from it. That’s pretty much the only exposure investors care about.


  • Familiar but with a difference in my case.

    I’ve spent my entire career alternating between two experiences.

    One is being grilled why I an delivering what I think should be done instead of what the executives told me to do.

    The other is getting awards and promotions when it turns out that I was right and the customers loved it.

    It happened to work for me to do it my way, though my executives have usually simultaneously rented the implication they don’t have good vision, they also know how to leverage my success for themselves. Particularly this most recent promotion has been stalled to reward better drones instead, but it’s looking like they have to pivot back to rewarding the folks the paying customers actually like instead of those that feed the executive egos.







  • I suppose the takeaway is once the weather is 100 or higher, I don’t care it’s just too damn hot.

    After being in 115 degree heat, 100 degree heat still feels just terrible.

    Similarly below zero, subjectively I didn’t need specifics anymore. I know that salting ice outside is probably not going to work anymore. Yes it does make a difference, but comfort wise I just hate it either way.

    So I can see, mostly joking but a grain of truth that you have “stupidly cold” then 0 to 100 scale of usual air temperature then “too damn hot”.

    It’s like the only way the farenheight scale is kind of appealing from a “humans like 0 to 100 scale”, but it’s mathematically painful and nonsense apart from comfortable human temperatures.


  • Yes, but even then you’d expect the faltering to be reflected, just earlier. As the analysts estimate low profits you’d expect the stock to suffer a sharp decline then.

    Given how overvalued Tesla is arguably in general and that the rationalization is that while it’s not the biggest and best brand now, but their growth trajectory should carry them past all the other automakers, it’s insane that they are only down 11% from their late december highs, and still showing a $1.4 trillion market cap…

    It’s not a company that looks like growth nor do their current results look to justify that crazy valuation. They are valued at 3x Ford, GM, Toyota, and Honda combined, despite having more modest business results than any of them.

    Yes, this local move upward on beating estimates despite a bad result is normal, but the broader trend of this stock is still anything but.

    They squandered their reputation to gain political clout that seems to have evaporated and are locked into EVs in a market where that’s no longer subsidized and a great deal of EV interest is muted now and other manufacturers are able to push out compelling EV cars. You know that Musk is going to take your money and spend it how he sees fit including obscene bonuses to himself…

    I just don’t understand Tesla investors at all at this point…


  • What i find funny are people building golang binaries without cgo and still wrapping them in full distro containers. Your binary uses nothing from the container and still it gets packaged that way…

    Seen so many developers incur a huge headache trying to figure out overly complicated container setup when they could just run their already static binary without any drama…



  • It’s funny because that’s true that an old Linux binary is likely to have issues under Linux, but an similarly old Windows application might work better under Wine on Linux than modern Windows.

    libc is actually relatively less likely, glibc is awfully conservative about changes, but there are a maze of likely service and library dependencies that were abandoned or didn’t regard backwards compatibility with the same importance.



  • Oh cool, let me install this software, what, it won’t install because it’s missing quicktime? Oh it needs directx 8 runtime? That could be a problem. Let’s advance the clock, 2004, that should be fine… What do you mean you can’t run .NET 1.1 applications and so that won’t run?

    Ironically, wine is more likely to have a path to easily run those programs under Linux, but if you had a Linux binary from that era you’d likely have a hard time getting that to run, probably harder than the microsoft scenario. So old Windows software is more likely to run under Linux than old Linux software…


  • AI in vim is actually often convenient.

    :set ai
    

    Cool, now it will keep track of my indentation.

    Now sometimes that gets in the way, and while you can:

    :set noai
    

    Usually it’s best for me to:

    :set paste
    

    And that’s my take on the utility of AI in vim. (that is what you meant right, there isn’t some other AI people are thinking of right?)


  • If you use it to make sure your deployment is sane and that your dev system didn’t have an invisible component that you assumed as a dependency, great. Containers are a great tool for simulating minimalist clean setups and not incurring surprise hidden dependencies.

    If your application carries a whole container with it for the user to use and that’s the only way to use the software, that’s going to be annoying. ‘docker style’ for bloat, flatpak/snap depends on the app but sometimes the application functionality is broken by the container boundaries. Admittedly flatpak/snap is frequently acceptable, really depends on if the program has a lot of interoperability features that get broken in the flatpak/snap runtime model.

    If your application only is deployable as a pod… I’m almost certainly going to want to avoid it if at all humanly possible. Pods as a self-hosted approach to do what you want, ok, fine and I own all that. If a third party pod is happening, I tend to see some part of it fall over it and no one can figure it out because the application is microserviced into oblivion and no human actually understands the whole flow… It’s possible also to do this with ‘traditional’ application delivery, but a pod is a very high sign that no one even bothered thinking hard about how it should come together and play nice with others.


  • Yeah, wifi is a crapshoot as to whether it might expect a cloud connection, so I have to research those devices carefully. I’m satisfied with my OpenGarage being on Wifi because I know it has no internet aspirations. I hope that Matter over Wifi devices are similarly local friendly, but I haven’t actually had anything to buy since that was an option.