- cross-posted to:
- technology@midwest.social
- cross-posted to:
- technology@midwest.social
This is an experimental and opinionated piece that I hope triggers some interesting discussion about the current situation with memory makers getting sued and possibly/allegedly the prices being deliberately manipulated with.
If anyone actually manages to read this, feedback is welcome
Every large AI startup is racing to be the last one standing. They are all gobbling up compute resources to ensure that they have the best competitive advantage when others go broke. That includes soaking up all the future supply they can to restrict their competitors ability to do the same. In < 5 years time there is only going to be one commercial AI company left, and all the rest will just be skeletons picked clean of all their resources.
Be prepared to live with whatever hardware you have now for about 10 years. If you’re lucky things will be back on an even keel by then.
I do think the consumer market might still look depressing in upcoming years, but I don’t think there will be one AI company left. I mean, even if we don’t take it literally, like I also wanted to mention how OpenAI gets to build its fabulous data centers while Anthropic just signs partnerships, and both LLMs (ChatGPT and Claude) are good and competitive. And don’t forget about FOSS models like DeepSeek.
There is something those companies aren’t loud and clear about, like they don’t talk about architectural bottlenecks, that what they need is not scaling but an architectural shift. And once photonics enters the game, should we expect the prices[*] to drop or will they justify it by even more compute power.
[*] edit: I mean LLM pricing (tokens), not chips