The owner probably still comes out ahead, no matter what.
Think of the 2008 housing crash. Must have sucked to be paying a fixed mortgage when the market went down. Except the person bought the house in 2004 and was paying the same mortgage they were then, and that’s still less than typical rent after a crash calmed things down a bit.
You don’t pay the mortgage of the house as it would sell right now, you pay the mortgage based on the purchase price that over years almost certainly trends lower. So as the landlord prices according to current market, the owner costs are largely based on the prices from years ago (except property taxes and insurance).
That’s of course assuming you have a mortgage at all, and ignoring the fact that the mortgage goes away entirely at some point.
One thing I will say where renting wins hands down is if you are going to only be there a couple of years. You probably would have needed the mortgage, the property value wouldn’t have increased by that much, and the loan origination fees, interest, and various other closing costs means you likely would lose money selling it that soon. The renter may be no worse off financially, but they are no better off then either. Except they can just leave and not worry about finding a replacement.
The boomers aren’t getting any younger, as more of them die, more houses go onto the market
Problem being that many of those houses suck. They are likely to be where there’s no housing shortage already, because no one is interested in living there. They tend to be old, and not charmingly over a hundred years old but still standing; like 50 years old with questions of asbestos and polybutylene; with dubious insulation at its best and likely decayed a bit. Terribly in need of maintenance with busted HVAC, rodent destroyed ductwork, dangerous wiring, and moldy crawlspace. Cracked foundations and sagging structures suggesting the wrong storm could just ruin it. They also tend to be relatively tiny compared to houses built in the last couple of decades. I had a boomer relative die, and what did their children manage to get for the house, after months and months on the market? $60k. We were shocked but that was actually a bit higher than houses in their area went for.
The owner probably still comes out ahead, no matter what.
Think of the 2008 housing crash. Must have sucked to be paying a fixed mortgage when the market went down. Except the person bought the house in 2004 and was paying the same mortgage they were then, and that’s still less than typical rent after a crash calmed things down a bit.
You don’t pay the mortgage of the house as it would sell right now, you pay the mortgage based on the purchase price that over years almost certainly trends lower. So as the landlord prices according to current market, the owner costs are largely based on the prices from years ago (except property taxes and insurance).
That’s of course assuming you have a mortgage at all, and ignoring the fact that the mortgage goes away entirely at some point.
One thing I will say where renting wins hands down is if you are going to only be there a couple of years. You probably would have needed the mortgage, the property value wouldn’t have increased by that much, and the loan origination fees, interest, and various other closing costs means you likely would lose money selling it that soon. The renter may be no worse off financially, but they are no better off then either. Except they can just leave and not worry about finding a replacement.
Problem being that many of those houses suck. They are likely to be where there’s no housing shortage already, because no one is interested in living there. They tend to be old, and not charmingly over a hundred years old but still standing; like 50 years old with questions of asbestos and polybutylene; with dubious insulation at its best and likely decayed a bit. Terribly in need of maintenance with busted HVAC, rodent destroyed ductwork, dangerous wiring, and moldy crawlspace. Cracked foundations and sagging structures suggesting the wrong storm could just ruin it. They also tend to be relatively tiny compared to houses built in the last couple of decades. I had a boomer relative die, and what did their children manage to get for the house, after months and months on the market? $60k. We were shocked but that was actually a bit higher than houses in their area went for.