1. Google being a private american company that claims the authority of what is okay and not okay on most devices over the world is problematic, especially in the context of ICE tracking apps, VPN apps, private messaging apps etc. They take this power but don’t take responsibility and would not be put into court if this measure would be proven useless if not harmful. I still remember how they complied with deleting Navalny’s app from russian app store and nothing stops them from revoking said IDs as well if they don’t like what dev does for a reason they’d not care to explain.
2. The side-benefit of that is a manifest v3-style hunt for those who still use their computing devices without watching ads. Alternative apps for social networks and google’s own resources is probably the only category I know half-savvy people still intentionally install, sometimes going out of their way for that. While this seems small, adblocking was too, and piracy was never anyone’s problem, but by totally crumbling it once again some CEO can get a bonus.
3. We are talking about Google’s Android, they had around 15 years to fix the swiss cheese their OS is, to clean obvious garbage from their app store, with modern phones you need to jump through the hoops to enable apk installation and even more hoops to root it, and it still isn’t perceived as safe, but does feel like a closed garden iPhone without benefits of having an iPhone - quality basic apps, curated store and need of israeli hack tools to reliably break in. Small scammers still get their bread and butter by sending links to infected files, big scammers vacuum everything you ever have with no explicit user’s agreement, and I don’t see how that would change with ID requerement they are no bank or government to ask for, but they’d, soon.

I think you should invite people to join you on not one, but two Christmasses to compare before and after. I’m sure they won’t magically fix things this time, at best it would be a little setback not changing much in the end. What it would do is directly giving Google even more power while hurting open source community, alternative appstores and OSes.