Yeah that’s true, calculating the actual collision risk is a whole different thing.
It was really just a joke, cause you know space is bigger and more empty than most people realize. Because what I said was “technically” true, if not super meaningful in any way.
That said, orbit isn’t too crowded yet, more is definitely going up, a lot more. Truth be told, 50 years from now, the number of satellites orbiting earth could easily be in the hundreds of thousands.
But a chain reaction in low earth orbit is generally short lived, atmospheric drag clears that up. A chain reaction in high earth orbit is exponentially less likely to happen. It’s the medium orbits to worry about, luckily they’re less popular for now, but as LEO fills up, they’ll likely start to be used more.
That’s disingenuous though. You have to compute the orbital tube volume to account for the collision risks.
Yeah that’s true, calculating the actual collision risk is a whole different thing.
It was really just a joke, cause you know space is bigger and more empty than most people realize. Because what I said was “technically” true, if not super meaningful in any way.
That said, orbit isn’t too crowded yet, more is definitely going up, a lot more. Truth be told, 50 years from now, the number of satellites orbiting earth could easily be in the hundreds of thousands.
We’re at what, close to 20k right now?
Won’t take 50 years.
And not every orbit is equally useful. Near misses are getting more frequent, and it only takes 1 to start a chain reaction.
But a chain reaction in low earth orbit is generally short lived, atmospheric drag clears that up. A chain reaction in high earth orbit is exponentially less likely to happen. It’s the medium orbits to worry about, luckily they’re less popular for now, but as LEO fills up, they’ll likely start to be used more.
Even if short lived it would still be devastating.