That’s not what I got from the article, though I might be from a similar age bracket as the author.
It does seem that we have hit diminishing returns when it comes to a lot of technologies. For example there really hasn’t been a significant change in the experience or utility of my phone in the last 10 years or so.
Compare that from phones that came out from 2005 to 2015 and you’ll kinda get what they are saying. We went from Nokia bricks, razors, BlackBerry, and then iphones all within a couple years.
When I was younger the general assumption was that we would be continuing to progress at the same rapid pace as we did when transitioning from analog to digital. Instead, we get more memory and processing but there’s not much difference in experience because it gets neutralized by bigger and clunkier apps that don’t care about optimization.
we have hit diminishing returns when it comes to a lot of technologies
But that goes for each technology in it’s own time. Take the wheel: we have it since like foroever. It does not evolve anymore, it’s a solved problem. Take the combustion engine, and we have it for 120 years or so. Take batteries. We have them for 160 years, and we thought they were a solved problem, but currently they make new jumps, and still ongoing, while smartphones are nearly solved. It is utter bullshit to say “technology in general” has started in this or that year and will slow down in XY.
Therefore I say it’s his personal feelings that are having this certain cycle.
Wheels today are an absolutely MASSIVE improvement on wheels from even a few hundred years ago, never mind the original wheel. They well continue to improve too.
But that goes for each technology in it’s own time.
Which is why I specified a lot of technologies, and not all technology? We are certainly making some advances, but like I said it doesn’t seem to be at the pace we experienced in previous decades.
Take batteries. We have them for 160 years, and we thought they were a solved problem, but currently they make new jumps, and still ongoing
I don’t think anyone ever claimed batteries were a solved problem…
We are making progress with them, but again, it’s been a pretty slow development over the last decade.
while smartphones are nearly solved
I don’t think I would make that claim either.
Therefore I say it’s his personal feelings that are having this certain cycle.
Or maybe you just lack perspective due to your age? Is there any particular technology that’s come out in the last 5-10 years that you consider groundbreaking? The only thing I can think of is LLM, and to be honest I’m not very impressed with them considering the societal cost.
Over the last decade or so the growth in capacity has mostly been focused on Electric vehicles. Small electronics have definitely grown, but at a modest pace that hasn’t really kept up with new hardware’s ability to drain it.
An iPhone from 2016 had about 2k mah and a iPhone 16 has around 3.5k mah.
Well, I’m not blaming the technology itself, they’re inanimate objects.
I think a lot of tech companies have shifted focus from innovating to exploiting for profit motives, too busy increasing their share price to invest in developing technology.
Techno-feudalism and the dark age of technology. A dark age produced, not necessarily by there being nothing new to find, but by all the profit being held by a handful of aristocratic gentry whose interest is best served by maintaining the status quo. Then it was land that was the basis of all wealth. Now it’s platforms. Either way, same outcome.
That’s not what I got from the article, though I might be from a similar age bracket as the author.
It does seem that we have hit diminishing returns when it comes to a lot of technologies. For example there really hasn’t been a significant change in the experience or utility of my phone in the last 10 years or so.
Compare that from phones that came out from 2005 to 2015 and you’ll kinda get what they are saying. We went from Nokia bricks, razors, BlackBerry, and then iphones all within a couple years.
When I was younger the general assumption was that we would be continuing to progress at the same rapid pace as we did when transitioning from analog to digital. Instead, we get more memory and processing but there’s not much difference in experience because it gets neutralized by bigger and clunkier apps that don’t care about optimization.
But that goes for each technology in it’s own time. Take the wheel: we have it since like foroever. It does not evolve anymore, it’s a solved problem. Take the combustion engine, and we have it for 120 years or so. Take batteries. We have them for 160 years, and we thought they were a solved problem, but currently they make new jumps, and still ongoing, while smartphones are nearly solved. It is utter bullshit to say “technology in general” has started in this or that year and will slow down in XY.
Therefore I say it’s his personal feelings that are having this certain cycle.
Wheels today are an absolutely MASSIVE improvement on wheels from even a few hundred years ago, never mind the original wheel. They well continue to improve too.
Which is why I specified a lot of technologies, and not all technology? We are certainly making some advances, but like I said it doesn’t seem to be at the pace we experienced in previous decades.
I don’t think anyone ever claimed batteries were a solved problem… We are making progress with them, but again, it’s been a pretty slow development over the last decade.
I don’t think I would make that claim either.
Or maybe you just lack perspective due to your age? Is there any particular technology that’s come out in the last 5-10 years that you consider groundbreaking? The only thing I can think of is LLM, and to be honest I’m not very impressed with them considering the societal cost.
Where are batteries slow development?
Over the last decade or so the growth in capacity has mostly been focused on Electric vehicles. Small electronics have definitely grown, but at a modest pace that hasn’t really kept up with new hardware’s ability to drain it.
An iPhone from 2016 had about 2k mah and a iPhone 16 has around 3.5k mah.
But that isn’t a function of technology itself, but of our approach to it once it becomes widely adopted.
Well, I’m not blaming the technology itself, they’re inanimate objects.
I think a lot of tech companies have shifted focus from innovating to exploiting for profit motives, too busy increasing their share price to invest in developing technology.
Techno-feudalism and the dark age of technology. A dark age produced, not necessarily by there being nothing new to find, but by all the profit being held by a handful of aristocratic gentry whose interest is best served by maintaining the status quo. Then it was land that was the basis of all wealth. Now it’s platforms. Either way, same outcome.