From batteries and solar panels to drones and satellites, China is building tech capabilities that extend well beyond AI, writes Steve Feldstein in his new book, "Bytes and Bullets: Global Rivalries, Big Tech, and the New Shape of Modern Warfare."
They are behind on lithography machines. LogicFolding seems like one way to overcome that, but for now HiSilicon is 18-24 months behind Apple and Qualcomm in performance. I will believe the promised gains when they are delivered, and I’m hopeful that a Chinese company figures out how to make EUVs. In a sense being only behind by 18-24 months is a win for Huawei and China, Biden’s goal was to keep Huawei at 2014 levels. In another Huawei phones and tablets still lose on performance in comparisons and they aren’t cheap. Xiaomi has also contracted TSMC to make its Xring chip, not SMIC. Of course cutting edge nodes are not necessary for all applications, certainly not for military applications which is the alleged reason behind the US ban. My laptop uses NVMe by YMTC and I wouldn’t tell the difference or care if it were 14nm or 28 nm or otherwise.
I expect the gap is going to get closed faster than most people think. The rate of technological progress in China is accelerating, and doing things the second time around is always easier as well because you know the general direction to move in which removes a lot of false starts you have when doing something completely new. Also worth noting that while mainland will catch up to what TSMC is doing in a few years, there’s no skill in the west to replicate that. So, if KMT gets in power and Taiwan ends up being repatriated, the west will lose their ability to make high end chips.
Yeah, it’s pretty clear that China is far ahead in every technology that matters because they make all of it.
They are behind on lithography machines. LogicFolding seems like one way to overcome that, but for now HiSilicon is 18-24 months behind Apple and Qualcomm in performance. I will believe the promised gains when they are delivered, and I’m hopeful that a Chinese company figures out how to make EUVs. In a sense being only behind by 18-24 months is a win for Huawei and China, Biden’s goal was to keep Huawei at 2014 levels. In another Huawei phones and tablets still lose on performance in comparisons and they aren’t cheap. Xiaomi has also contracted TSMC to make its Xring chip, not SMIC. Of course cutting edge nodes are not necessary for all applications, certainly not for military applications which is the alleged reason behind the US ban. My laptop uses NVMe by YMTC and I wouldn’t tell the difference or care if it were 14nm or 28 nm or otherwise.
I expect the gap is going to get closed faster than most people think. The rate of technological progress in China is accelerating, and doing things the second time around is always easier as well because you know the general direction to move in which removes a lot of false starts you have when doing something completely new. Also worth noting that while mainland will catch up to what TSMC is doing in a few years, there’s no skill in the west to replicate that. So, if KMT gets in power and Taiwan ends up being repatriated, the west will lose their ability to make high end chips.