If you can use this data to forecast estimates, and popularity growth can be assumed to be linear, we’d be at least two generations away from a majority in the latest generation at that time; and another 2-3 generations so that there’s an overall majority in the entire country by then.
So it seems to be half a century, as an optimistic estimate, for there to be an overall majority, not including time needed for political reorganization.
It seems appropriate to conclude that someone living today shouldn’t expect the revolution in their lifetime.
Change does not happen smoothly and gradually either, but by leaps and bounds. Perceptions can change quite quickly once critical mass is reached, like water boiling after being heated, and this number does not need to be 50/50.
If you can use this data to forecast estimates, and popularity growth can be assumed to be linear, we’d be at least two generations away from a majority in the latest generation at that time; and another 2-3 generations so that there’s an overall majority in the entire country by then.
So it seems to be half a century, as an optimistic estimate, for there to be an overall majority, not including time needed for political reorganization.
It seems appropriate to conclude that someone living today shouldn’t expect the revolution in their lifetime.
Change does not happen smoothly and gradually either, but by leaps and bounds. Perceptions can change quite quickly once critical mass is reached, like water boiling after being heated, and this number does not need to be 50/50.
Let’s hope that happens, sooner rather than later.