• Ulrich@feddit.org
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    17 hours ago

    hardware has been converted to manufacturing datacenter variants of this hardware.

    Some of it has. Not all of it (except for Micron).

    nor would it crater consumer hardware demand.

    It doesn’t have to. It seems we both agree that server hardware demand clearly impacts consumer supply, and yet for some reason you seem to think this is a one-way street?

    It takes time and money to convert manufacturing capacity between consumer hardware to datacenter hardware.

    And yet, they did it, very quickly, and will do so again when the market shifts again.

    • theparadox@lemmy.world
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      14 hours ago

      And yet, they did it, very quickly, and will do so again when the market shifts again.

      These aren’t typical conditions. There is a world of difference between “Yo, here is a truckload of money. Give me all your RAM for the next two years!” (AI right now) and “We need to align our capacity to the current needs of the market in order to not flood the market with product we can’t sell.” (normal conditions).

      Look at the memory market before this AI shitshow. It’s cyclical as the fabs try to match demand without flooding the market. It typically takes several quarters to ramp capacity up and down, causing shortages and then oversaturating the market because they can’t do it fast enough. Returning to that kind of production is also likely to be more difficult than it would otherwise be to adjust while already in it. There are so many unknowns in this wild situation. How much DRAM should they commit to making?

      Anyway, I’m not even a business person so what the fuck do I know. I’m getting tired of this conversation. It would be great to be optimistic, but that’s not something I’m capable of right now. Best of luck. I hope it pops and prices plummet.