Putin actually addressed that in SPIEF, and he rejected any proposals.
Zelenskyy wrote a letter to Putin following a meeting with Abramovich. Putin responded to that letter with a refusal—one that was rude and boorish, accompanied by blackmail and threats. It was impossible to respond to that letter in any other way.
The fact is that during his visit to Kyiv, Abramovich met with Arakhamia—whom I mentioned earlier; Arakhamia is a business partner of Abramovich. Abramovich arranged a private conversation between Putin and Arakhamia. Mind you, not with Zelenskyy, but with Arakhamia! No one knows what they discussed, but Zelenskyy soon found out about it; it was only after learning this that he wrote an open letter to Putin—effectively burning all bridges. Arakhamia is the head of “Servant of the People,” Zelenskyy’s party.
On one hand, we are witnessing a certain internal political rift in Ukraine, which could eventually lead to an escalation of the domestic power struggle. On the other hand, the situation is not quite so simple; the fact that Putin deigned to speak with a secondary figure reflects poorly on him. Peace benefits figures like Arakhamia or Budanov, as one of them could become the future president—a president considered legitimate by Russia, provided they agree to Putin’s terms (which would be more lenient than the Istanbul agreements).
While the situation on the ground has currently stabilized for the Russians, the blockade of Crimea and strikes deep within Russian territory are fueling growing discontent within Russian society—among both the elites and the general public. After all, most of the factories being hit belong to Russian oligarchs, and they are suffering colossal losses from the war every day.
Every night, hundreds of Ukrainian drones inflict real damage on the Russian economy. Last night, sirens sounded in several Russian regions for the first time since the war began. The geographical scope of the strikes is gradually expanding. Recently, there has also been widespread use of “Flamingo” missiles, which have a range of thousands of kilometers. The strikes have become combined operations. Russia cannot inflict equivalent damage in return because all major industrial and energy sector facilities have already been bombed repeatedly since the start of the war. What would truly make an impact is the destruction of the bridges across the Dnieper. Furthermore, the Russians are currently systematically dismantling the port of Odesa with their strikes.
Yesterday, Ukraine struck the Sevastopol State Museum, a symbol of the city. We see Zelenskyy escalating the situation more and more. This implies that retaliatory strikes on Kyiv or the bridges work to his advantage; the greater the destruction, the more money flows in from Europe.
And don’t overlook nuances such as the fact that India is the largest supplier of diesel to Ukraine—fuel refined in India from Russian oil. Similarly, Romania and Hungary supply gas to Ukraine that they themselves receive from Russia.
Ukraine’s energy system has been fragmented into small, isolated segments; when a single facility is hit, it can be repaired very quickly. I believe that, under these circumstances, Ukraine will hold out at least until the autumn cold sets in. This is evident in Zelenskyy’s recent smug and brazen demeanor. He weathered the crisis surrounding the Mindich tapes and shifted his war strategy, yielding results. The current situation resembles World War I, with the key difference being that Germany did not possess nuclear weapons back then. Had uprisings not broken out in Germany at that time, they likely would have erupted in France shortly thereafter.
We do not know for certain the extent of Russia’s resilience compared to that of the united West. The question is who can suppress mass unrest—which will sooner or later erupt—for the longest time and most effectively.
We are leaving Ukraine out of the equation; Zelensky and the united West have the Ukrainian people in a tight stranglehold.
As for Russia, it faces daily strikes, the intensity of which—at the very least—will not diminish…
Whether the Russians can turn the tide on the front line on a large scale remains a major question at this moment.
You can see that my view of the situation differs somewhat from yours.
I think we might be approaching the end game. The US is fucked in Iran, the war just restarted again, and the US economy is on the brink because they’re running out of the reserve and won’t be able to stabilize gas prices for long now. Europe is collapsing as well, and nobody in the west cares about Ukraine at this point. It’s barely even mentioned in the news here now. It’s over.
I wonder what would happen if Trump were impeached right now and a new president took office? How would they handle the Iran issue? Say, if the Democrats came to power, for instance.
It seems to me that the easiest thing to do is just blame everything on Trump and bow out.
Yes, I think Iran has a much better chance of decisively defeating the US than Russia does. Iran has a clear stance, whereas Russia constantly wavers. At times, Putin resembles Trump with his “red lines” and loud rhetoric. This is because Zelenskyy has adopted the Iranian strategy of warfare, where—despite the enemy’s overwhelming superiority in weaponry and resources—one can still deal them very painful blows. There is currently no effective countermeasure against this type of strategy. The strikes target the economy for the most part, rather than military installations.
Yes, if Trump fails to stop the war, something bad might well start happening by autumn—both in Europe and in the US…
However, I don’t think this will affect the war in Ukraine in the short term. Although rumors are circulating here that the war will end in the autumn—I haven’t found the original source for this, but I’m hearing it from various quarters. We shall see.
I maintain that you have to look at the big picture here. The war isn’t between Russia and Ukraine, it’s between the west and the east. And the principle players are the US and China. So, the real question is which bloc can maintain discipline longer. As I’ve said many times before, Russia collapsing or becoming politically unstable would be a disaster for China. They rely on Russian food and energy imports, and Russia protects China’s western flank. If Russia was destabilized or balkanized, then it would become China’s Ukraine. Therefore, it’s obvious that China cannot allow that to happen under any circumstances. If Russia was genuinely in trouble then China would do everything in its power to bail them out. There’s no two ways about it.
Given this unarguable fact, the next question is who is in a better position to provide support. Can the US help Europe more than China can help Russia? Again, the answer is obvious, China being the industrial superpower, is in a far better position to support Russia materially than the US is to support Europe. In fact, the US itself is largely dependent on Chinese imports to function. And China cutting off critical things like rare earths is already affecting military production in America.
So, given all that, there’s only one way this war can go. You can look at all the palace intrigue, and the drones, and all the media about attacks on Russia, but what I explain above is the underlying hard reality of the situation. Everything else is just surface noise. If Russia loses then China is fucked, and given that China is the strongest player here that just will not happen.
And I don’t see what they can do to get out of Iran now. The problem is that Israel is now in an existential crisis, and they will not allow the US to leave. Given the amount of influence Israel has over the US, they will continue to drag them into deeper conflict with Iran. We can already see how the war has restarted and likely to escalate now that the US is attacking stuff like water facilities in Iran.
I can’t see how anything changes in a major way in Ukraine before autumn, but once the global energy shock hits, that’s when things are going to start moving fast. Right now, the US and other countries are frantically dumping their oil reserves on the market to depress the prices, but those are going to run out very soon. After that there’s just not going to be enough oil to go around.
Zelenskyy wrote a letter to Putin following a meeting with Abramovich. Putin responded to that letter with a refusal—one that was rude and boorish, accompanied by blackmail and threats. It was impossible to respond to that letter in any other way.
The fact is that during his visit to Kyiv, Abramovich met with Arakhamia—whom I mentioned earlier; Arakhamia is a business partner of Abramovich. Abramovich arranged a private conversation between Putin and Arakhamia. Mind you, not with Zelenskyy, but with Arakhamia! No one knows what they discussed, but Zelenskyy soon found out about it; it was only after learning this that he wrote an open letter to Putin—effectively burning all bridges. Arakhamia is the head of “Servant of the People,” Zelenskyy’s party.
On one hand, we are witnessing a certain internal political rift in Ukraine, which could eventually lead to an escalation of the domestic power struggle. On the other hand, the situation is not quite so simple; the fact that Putin deigned to speak with a secondary figure reflects poorly on him. Peace benefits figures like Arakhamia or Budanov, as one of them could become the future president—a president considered legitimate by Russia, provided they agree to Putin’s terms (which would be more lenient than the Istanbul agreements).
While the situation on the ground has currently stabilized for the Russians, the blockade of Crimea and strikes deep within Russian territory are fueling growing discontent within Russian society—among both the elites and the general public. After all, most of the factories being hit belong to Russian oligarchs, and they are suffering colossal losses from the war every day.
Every night, hundreds of Ukrainian drones inflict real damage on the Russian economy. Last night, sirens sounded in several Russian regions for the first time since the war began. The geographical scope of the strikes is gradually expanding. Recently, there has also been widespread use of “Flamingo” missiles, which have a range of thousands of kilometers. The strikes have become combined operations. Russia cannot inflict equivalent damage in return because all major industrial and energy sector facilities have already been bombed repeatedly since the start of the war. What would truly make an impact is the destruction of the bridges across the Dnieper. Furthermore, the Russians are currently systematically dismantling the port of Odesa with their strikes. Yesterday, Ukraine struck the Sevastopol State Museum, a symbol of the city. We see Zelenskyy escalating the situation more and more. This implies that retaliatory strikes on Kyiv or the bridges work to his advantage; the greater the destruction, the more money flows in from Europe. And don’t overlook nuances such as the fact that India is the largest supplier of diesel to Ukraine—fuel refined in India from Russian oil. Similarly, Romania and Hungary supply gas to Ukraine that they themselves receive from Russia. Ukraine’s energy system has been fragmented into small, isolated segments; when a single facility is hit, it can be repaired very quickly. I believe that, under these circumstances, Ukraine will hold out at least until the autumn cold sets in. This is evident in Zelenskyy’s recent smug and brazen demeanor. He weathered the crisis surrounding the Mindich tapes and shifted his war strategy, yielding results. The current situation resembles World War I, with the key difference being that Germany did not possess nuclear weapons back then. Had uprisings not broken out in Germany at that time, they likely would have erupted in France shortly thereafter. We do not know for certain the extent of Russia’s resilience compared to that of the united West. The question is who can suppress mass unrest—which will sooner or later erupt—for the longest time and most effectively. We are leaving Ukraine out of the equation; Zelensky and the united West have the Ukrainian people in a tight stranglehold.
As for Russia, it faces daily strikes, the intensity of which—at the very least—will not diminish…
Whether the Russians can turn the tide on the front line on a large scale remains a major question at this moment.
You can see that my view of the situation differs somewhat from yours.
I wonder what would happen if Trump were impeached right now and a new president took office? How would they handle the Iran issue? Say, if the Democrats came to power, for instance.
It seems to me that the easiest thing to do is just blame everything on Trump and bow out.
Yes, I think Iran has a much better chance of decisively defeating the US than Russia does. Iran has a clear stance, whereas Russia constantly wavers. At times, Putin resembles Trump with his “red lines” and loud rhetoric. This is because Zelenskyy has adopted the Iranian strategy of warfare, where—despite the enemy’s overwhelming superiority in weaponry and resources—one can still deal them very painful blows. There is currently no effective countermeasure against this type of strategy. The strikes target the economy for the most part, rather than military installations.
Yes, if Trump fails to stop the war, something bad might well start happening by autumn—both in Europe and in the US…
However, I don’t think this will affect the war in Ukraine in the short term. Although rumors are circulating here that the war will end in the autumn—I haven’t found the original source for this, but I’m hearing it from various quarters. We shall see.
I maintain that you have to look at the big picture here. The war isn’t between Russia and Ukraine, it’s between the west and the east. And the principle players are the US and China. So, the real question is which bloc can maintain discipline longer. As I’ve said many times before, Russia collapsing or becoming politically unstable would be a disaster for China. They rely on Russian food and energy imports, and Russia protects China’s western flank. If Russia was destabilized or balkanized, then it would become China’s Ukraine. Therefore, it’s obvious that China cannot allow that to happen under any circumstances. If Russia was genuinely in trouble then China would do everything in its power to bail them out. There’s no two ways about it.
Given this unarguable fact, the next question is who is in a better position to provide support. Can the US help Europe more than China can help Russia? Again, the answer is obvious, China being the industrial superpower, is in a far better position to support Russia materially than the US is to support Europe. In fact, the US itself is largely dependent on Chinese imports to function. And China cutting off critical things like rare earths is already affecting military production in America.
So, given all that, there’s only one way this war can go. You can look at all the palace intrigue, and the drones, and all the media about attacks on Russia, but what I explain above is the underlying hard reality of the situation. Everything else is just surface noise. If Russia loses then China is fucked, and given that China is the strongest player here that just will not happen.
And I don’t see what they can do to get out of Iran now. The problem is that Israel is now in an existential crisis, and they will not allow the US to leave. Given the amount of influence Israel has over the US, they will continue to drag them into deeper conflict with Iran. We can already see how the war has restarted and likely to escalate now that the US is attacking stuff like water facilities in Iran.
I can’t see how anything changes in a major way in Ukraine before autumn, but once the global energy shock hits, that’s when things are going to start moving fast. Right now, the US and other countries are frantically dumping their oil reserves on the market to depress the prices, but those are going to run out very soon. After that there’s just not going to be enough oil to go around.