Based on the registration applications, I think getting banned is a lot less common than people think. Most people are checking out the fediverse because of other problems on reddit, whether its the ads, bots, monetization related changes, hateful content, privacy concerns, manipulation, trump related concerns, etc

We do get the occasional “I’m here because I got banned”, but the vast majority is “I’m curious about what this place is like”.

Now isn’t hard evidence on its own, but I’d also bet that when the first category joins, they’re often looking for a place to vent about their ban. When the second category joins, they rarely announce their newness.