Even with a fixed money supply, prices are still set by a formula that accounts for the velocity of money, or how often any particular unit of money is spent (I spend a dollar at the store, who spends the dollar with a supplier, who spends the dollar by paying a worker, who spends the dollar and so on and so forth). It also accounts for the total economic production.
Peg the whole thing to a semi fixed supply of gold and the prices can still change drastically with shifts in the velocity of money or total aggregate production. That’s why fiat currency is good, so that the central bank can pull on different levers to try to keep prices stable, even as different things are happening.
We don’t have a fixed money supply in the modern system when banks can issue debt. Not even close. I suggest you read the Bank Of England’s paper called “Money Making in the Modern Economy” which I mentioned.
We’re talking about different things here. I’m not suggesting Gold as a trade token, I’m not even suggesting Gold as a store of value for stable times, I’m suggesting gold as a store of value against things like large economic crashes (the upcoming AI bubble crash, possibly with a Realestate bubble crash) and those times when the dominant Imperial Power in the World is being replaced by a now one (such as it seems to be the case new ones, as now with the US decaying and China rising). I’m suggesting that, purely because Gold has way less exposure to Politics and human mismanagement in general than even major currencies.
I think I failed so far at explaining myself mainly by talking too much.
My point is simple: gold and fiat currencies are roughly the same, but gold isn’t issued by anybody and isn’t managed by anybody whilst fiat currencies are, so gold is less exposed to the risks inherent to greed and corruption of those who issue and manage currencies - there’s not temptation to “issue more gold” because it’s not at all possible, there is nobody deciding “gold interest rates” because there is no such thing (to have interest you need to have more money tomorrow than you have today, as today’s loan will be repaid tomorrow plus interest and you can’t really make more gold any faster than mining it)
Gold has less exposure to Politicians and Central Banks - that’s it, that’s the important difference.
In stable times when living in mature Economies, that difference is pretty much irrelevant, in times like now it can make a huge difference which is probably why the GLDUSD exchange rate took of with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and accelerated even more with Trump’s second mandate as POTUS.
We don’t have a fixed money supply in the modern system when banks can issue debt. Not even close. I suggest you read the Bank Of England’s paper called “Money Making in the Modern Economy” which I mentioned.
Yes, I’m quite familiar with that paper.
I’m not arguing that we have a fixed money supply. I was saying that if we were on a gold standard, in an alternative universe hypothetical, where the money supply was close to fixed, we would probably see worse price volatility.
Even with a fixed money supply, prices are still set by a formula that accounts for the velocity of money, or how often any particular unit of money is spent (I spend a dollar at the store, who spends the dollar with a supplier, who spends the dollar by paying a worker, who spends the dollar and so on and so forth). It also accounts for the total economic production.
Peg the whole thing to a semi fixed supply of gold and the prices can still change drastically with shifts in the velocity of money or total aggregate production. That’s why fiat currency is good, so that the central bank can pull on different levers to try to keep prices stable, even as different things are happening.
Two points:
I think I failed so far at explaining myself mainly by talking too much.
My point is simple: gold and fiat currencies are roughly the same, but gold isn’t issued by anybody and isn’t managed by anybody whilst fiat currencies are, so gold is less exposed to the risks inherent to greed and corruption of those who issue and manage currencies - there’s not temptation to “issue more gold” because it’s not at all possible, there is nobody deciding “gold interest rates” because there is no such thing (to have interest you need to have more money tomorrow than you have today, as today’s loan will be repaid tomorrow plus interest and you can’t really make more gold any faster than mining it)
Gold has less exposure to Politicians and Central Banks - that’s it, that’s the important difference.
In stable times when living in mature Economies, that difference is pretty much irrelevant, in times like now it can make a huge difference which is probably why the GLDUSD exchange rate took of with the Russian invasion of Ukraine and accelerated even more with Trump’s second mandate as POTUS.
Yes, I’m quite familiar with that paper.
I’m not arguing that we have a fixed money supply. I was saying that if we were on a gold standard, in an alternative universe hypothetical, where the money supply was close to fixed, we would probably see worse price volatility.