Clean-energy growth helped China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fall by 1% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, extending a declining trend that started in March 2024.
The CO2 output of the nation’s power sector – its dominant source of emissions – fell by 3% in the first half of the year, as growth in solar power alone matched the rise in electricity demand.
The new analysis for Carbon Brief shows that record solar capacity additions are putting China’s CO2 emissions on track to fall across 2025 as a whole.
Other key findings include:
- The growth in clean power generation, some 270 terawatt hours (TWh) excluding hydro, significantly outpaced demand growth of 170TWh in the first half of the year.
- Solar capacity additions set new records due to a rush before a June policy change, with 212 gigawatts (GW) added in the first half of the year.
- This rush means solar is likely to set an annual record for growth in 2025, becoming China’s single-largest source of clean power generation in the process.
- Coal-power capacity could surge by as much as 80-100GW this year, potentially setting a new annual record, even as coal-fired electricity generation declines.
- The use of coal to make synthetic fuels and chemicals is growing rapidly, climbing 20% in the first half of the year and helping add 3% to China’s CO2 since 2020.
- The coal-chemical industry is planning further expansion, which could add another 2% to China’s CO2 by 2029, making the 2030 deadline for peaking harder to meet.
Even if its emissions fall in 2025 as expected, however, China is bound to miss multiple important climate targets this year.
Important topic, hope CB are right this time about peaking (have been over-optimistic in the past).
But coal to chemicals is terrible, it’s what europeans abandoned long ago (mostly mid-last-century) - seems extreme self-sufficiency concept ( or maybe can’t rely on russian oil / gas ) ?China has been building massive “coal to fuel” conversion plants for over a decade now. Their main goal has less to do with Russia, or caring about the climate, and more with reducing the extreme pollution levels they used to have in those mega-cities.
Same thing with electric vehicles. China has a massive population, with growing energy requirements. They’re building everything they can to catch up with expected per capita energy demands.
For reference, in 2022:
- United States: 78kWh
- Germany: 40kWh
- China: 31kWh
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_energy_consumption_per_capita
europe abandoned the coal-to-liquid plants mostly because europe has ample oil on its own and not too much coal, so it’s not needed.
other countries, like south africa, have only coal but no oil, so they have used the coal-to-oil process routinely since last century.
