When Iran’s supreme leader was reported killed in a bombing attack, one question surfaced quickly: What happens when a political system built around one man suddenly loses him?
Well, why Beijing is the one which can’t avoid this question and not Washington? Tell me, Washington, what happens when the Rapist in chief kicks the bucket?
Our government isn’t quite a case of Trump’s word is law. And it was only two years ago that we had a nearly functional government. When Trump finally does the only good thing he will ever do, we have something to fall back on.
The US famously has a clear line of succession that goes down a long way, all the way to the Washington DC Municipal Dogcatcher or someone, and nominally is run by impartial institutions. Trump and his Supreme Court have weakened these somewhat, but they theoretically still stand, so that if a succession was triggered, there’d be considerable institutional inertia pushing to return to some form of equilibrium.
Xi’s personal power over the CCP, and in turn, the Chinese state, seems to be a lot greater. There are no judges or delegates who would push back against him, and the principles of rule are what he says they are. It was similar with Mao, whose death precipitated conflict and instability.
There are about half a dozen people in the Politburo that chose him and his predecessors. Take that out, which is not really that many people, and yeah there would be issues.
Not terribly much, actually. At least if it kicks the bucket relatively soon.
In that case, JD Vance will automatically become the president, which is a horrible thing itself, but since he won’t be able to consolidate power very efficiently, there’s a good chance there will be presidential elections around when the 2025 presidential term ends, and then a president gets voted in, just as always.
Of course, that will either mean that a lot of Republicans will end up in jail. And if that does not happen, the whole political system will lose its credibility and all of USA gets massively destabilised.
But there are rules and if the new leadership bothers following them, things will roll as well or badly as they were rolling until 2024.
the whole political system will lose its credibility
I think that ship has sailed.
A smaller one has. But the bigger one is still moored.
There are still a lot of people in USA who believe that USA can remain one country. Democrats seem to believe that there’s hope that things will start getting better again, once Democrats are back in power.
I think things could get better, if the democrats take back power, and then display a level of virtue and resolve they we have never seen from them in the history of ever.
I think it more likely that we become the Ottoman Empire.
I’d be very curious about what “we become the Ottoman Empire” means when used by you!
That sounds like a phrase that can have fifteen different meanings depending on who’s saying it.
In this case, I’m referring to the description it had during and before WW1, “the sick man of Europe.” I’m not 100% clear on what happened, but it was collapsing on itself, and wound up fracturing.
And I see your point, since I didn’t specify a time period. For a while, they were serous badasses.
We all party? I’m sure there is more to it, like sighing a breath of relief, thanking a non existent god, dancing, drinking… It’ll mostly be fine!
The Central Committee elects a new chairman and they move on? The president of the PRC probably takes the lead in the interim? How do they think Xi Jinping became chairman exactly? Divine intervention?
Why not Russia? Why not have Putin answer this since most of the problems Russia is caught up in are directly linked to him? Plus a big ally of Russia was just surprised attacked by Russia’s historic enemy with nary a whisper from Moscow. Putin traded all the respect and gigantic Soviet era military stockpile for Crimea. When he dies, Russia is going to shatter.
Five bucks China takes Baikal.
Russia isn’t mentioned because it’s no longer a superpower and it’s also obvious that when Putin dies it’s going to be a shitshow unless something drastic changes.
How China handles Xi’s succession will probably define geopolitics for the next few decades if not longer.
Is the question about where to bury the Uyghur bodies?
