The only problem with his prediction is that as the 10% of human work increases, most of the increased work will also be done by AI, so all humans are doing is getting all the work breaking rocks, as AI handles any interesting stuff that pops up.
I can see a bright future for consultants brought in to try and save a company whose Boomer CEO went all-in on AI.
We saw this with the Automated Teller Machine (ATM). Years after widespread ATM availability, banks had more tellers than ever. More people started using financial services. I think mobile bank apps turned that tide back, but that could still also go either way, in the long run.
And even so, there’s also still a huge “un-banked” population who simply cash their paycheck and never use another financial service.
Jevons Paradox
It’s odd (paradoxical, even?) to call it a paradox when that’s what has happened in the medium to long term with nearly every previous period of major technology change.
I think the problem is that technology isn’t the main driver of how society’s wealth is distributed in a population: that’s a political choice. If technology creates more wealth in an unequal society, those at the top will be the beneficiaries. If it creates a wider awareness of the need for redistribution, then it’ll become a tide that raises all boats.
The bigger question is whether the LLM bubble is going to have any lasting impact.
I don’t think so.
Everything else in thr economy will run and cheap data centres will be used eventually. We use more and more every year the bubble won’t stop thr growth
Not in the long run, but we can expect a period of substantial economic downturn, even more than we are experiencing today. And the economy is highly vulnerable due to concentration of wealth, multiple wars across the globe with serious ramifications for the countries who are not at war and an ever increasing dependency on AI.
Yes!
And I always add that the financial issue with dependency on AI is that there’s no way to know today what the final capacity will be after the excitement settles down.
I see plenty of fear of missing out, but less fear of becoming dependant on a suddenly scarce resource. I think the second risk is higher (based on past technology experiences).
No more resources for data centres.
It’s fucking insane that we are pumping trillions into replacing human workers when we can’t even provide everyone with food, housing, and healthcare.
These companies need to be stopped.
Some of them are actually realizing that the computing resources needed are more expensive than the human workers. Once these companies stop fucking around and start charging real prices, this will be more obvious.
We aren‘t spending trillions on data centers. The elites that hoarded all the wealth like a bunch of dragons do. And they will keep funding our decline until we do something about it.
You know, Siegfried probably had the right idea dumping all that gold into a river after slaying the dragon.
we could provide everyone with food, housing and healthcare. we chose not to. it’s more important for jeff to get another yacht and a fancy wedding in venice.
Yes, which is why we not to draw a line in the sand and demand no more building of data centers.
If there’s nothing in it for us, or all we get are the externalities, we should say no, as forcibly as is necessary.
I don’t fucking want a job. I want progress.
Build the data centres.
Lmfao, “progress”
If you want a vacuous word then buy a dictionary or a sign that says “progress”.
If you want a real thing that tangibly benefits a real person, I’m listening.
LLMs are dead-end tech. There is no progress to be made there, dumbass
They are just trying to undo the damage they did when they went around telling everyone they wont have a job anymore.
That wasn’t a warning, it was a sales pitch, to get sociopathic CEOs to buy their snake oil.
They shot themselves on the foot with that one
Turns out gloating when you don’t have the cards is a bad move.
A move Trump keeps making, with no apparent consequences besides more bribes flowing in.
Now he realized that he needs their money to survive. What an asshole.
He also needs engineers to be the ones using and pitching it.
It’s hard sell to people to want to train their replacements.
He hired good looking ladies with big tits that go around and pitch some crap power point presentations. How the fuck I know it ? From fucking data leaks from Bumble and other companies that leaked internal Anthropic presentations for corporate. He have all figure out how to sell crap to corpo.
You have a link? Googling is hard because leaked anthropic just brings up the source code fiasco.
Edit: I believe ya I just wanna see and link to others.
Amodei’s not Altman. He actually seems to be trying to think things through.
The only thing that he’s thinking is how to beg for more billions and add middleman to the office job so he can fuck your and mine salary. But yeees please defend another billionaire because “He thinks things trough” how to put giant dildo straight up into your ass Sir.
No, he isn’t. He’s just trying to market his bullshit tech to head off regulation and poor public sentiment.
