If I thoroughly, and reliably knew the answer to that, I would be… lets say ‘very well financially positioned’.
Yogthos is certainly at least partially correct, but… where is all this money going?
Its… Private Equity. Private Credit.
The entire point is that via a mechanistic application of loopholes and usage of specific legal carve outs… you don’t actually have to tell anyone nearly anything. The entire point is to obfuscate what is going on.
… At least some of the money is getting pulled out basically just to pay off debts that investors have that are now problematic.
This is how a recession or depression actually mechanically happens -> because the entire system is built on loans which are built on loans which are built on loans…well, when some part of that fractal chain/web breaks, when some part of it cant reliable make payments anymore… the breakage spreads, as more and more people now need to cover obligations with actual cash, not promises of future cash.
People call this ‘the credit supercycle’ or ‘the business cycle’, depending on the scope and time scale… these patterns play out fairly regularly, but predicting their timimg and extent with high precision is nearly impossible, because the total system is fundamentally chaotic, in the mathematical sense.
However, not everybody is just purely panicking and pulling out to settle their obligations… many are repositioning. Its kinda like water in a box, a box where you can push up or pull down or certain points of its floor… the water, the capital, will tend flow away from risk of massive losses / or poor real* returns, and pool in areas of perceived, actually steady and reliable real* returns.
Where ‘real’ in this context means both adjusted for inflation and also international currency conversion rates.
This entire process is largely opaque and horrendously complex.
But you can look at it from the outside and describe rules that it does at least tend to follow.
As far as I’m aware, at least some proportion of … theoretically ‘smarter’ people are throwing their money into things like mining companies for rare earths, uranium, things whose stocks will almost be guaranteed to go up because the raw materials they extract will be a part of basically any technological civilization going forward from here.
What else is almost guaranteed to get more expensive?
Power, Food, Water.
So, the theory would be roughly that ‘smarter’ money would get as close to the first step.of any process involved in providing or producing those things, as possible.
… such is the logic of capitalism at least as I see it, which also kind of means we are defacto accelerating the ‘cyberpunk dystopia-fication’ / ‘techno-neofeudalism’ thing, where any person or entity that more or less owns these kinds of companies… they become sort of like hegemonic guilds that states have to basically negotiate with as either equals or lessers.
A lot of it will get moved into physical assets like property. There’s also been a huge investment boom in HK because people are realizing Chinese economy is more stable now. Similar situation with Singapore since Asia is expected to be doing better than the west thanks to China being the stabilizing force there.
China is making so many moves right now, to set themselves up as a viable alternative to the the USD… they’re doing some pretty serious amounts of gold hording (yes literally), and also seem to be setting up a rather extensive and robust system that would facilitate actual physical gold clearing…
The US on the other hand is also … there are at least rumors of basically gold backed 50 year bonds.
… and Europe is at the very least basically pulling all their gold that is physically held in the US, back to their countries, repatriating it.
The fundamental structure and paradigm of the PetroDollar/Euro/Yen is now… basically breaking up, and at least right now, in the uncertain interim… it looks like everybody is taking inventory of their gold, and trying to figure out how to reposition their currency/bond/trade systems around being more directly backed by gold.
How this will actually shake out… what the new equilibrium will be… multipolar world, or new global hegemon… or something in between and more complicated… basically impossible to say, but things are changing dramatically.
Exactly, the rich can see crashes coming early, so they pull out of liquidity to protect their assets. As a bonus, when the crash happens, they can swoop in and buy up the assets others are forced to let go on the cheap. So, each crisis ends up acting as a black Friday for billionaires and a massive wealth transfer to the top.
Where is the capital flying to?
If I thoroughly, and reliably knew the answer to that, I would be… lets say ‘very well financially positioned’.
Yogthos is certainly at least partially correct, but… where is all this money going?
Its… Private Equity. Private Credit.
The entire point is that via a mechanistic application of loopholes and usage of specific legal carve outs… you don’t actually have to tell anyone nearly anything. The entire point is to obfuscate what is going on.
… At least some of the money is getting pulled out basically just to pay off debts that investors have that are now problematic.
This is how a recession or depression actually mechanically happens -> because the entire system is built on loans which are built on loans which are built on loans…well, when some part of that fractal chain/web breaks, when some part of it cant reliable make payments anymore… the breakage spreads, as more and more people now need to cover obligations with actual cash, not promises of future cash.
People call this ‘the credit supercycle’ or ‘the business cycle’, depending on the scope and time scale… these patterns play out fairly regularly, but predicting their timimg and extent with high precision is nearly impossible, because the total system is fundamentally chaotic, in the mathematical sense.
However, not everybody is just purely panicking and pulling out to settle their obligations… many are repositioning. Its kinda like water in a box, a box where you can push up or pull down or certain points of its floor… the water, the capital, will tend flow away from risk of massive losses / or poor real* returns, and pool in areas of perceived, actually steady and reliable real* returns.
This entire process is largely opaque and horrendously complex.
But you can look at it from the outside and describe rules that it does at least tend to follow.
As far as I’m aware, at least some proportion of … theoretically ‘smarter’ people are throwing their money into things like mining companies for rare earths, uranium, things whose stocks will almost be guaranteed to go up because the raw materials they extract will be a part of basically any technological civilization going forward from here.
What else is almost guaranteed to get more expensive?
Power, Food, Water.
So, the theory would be roughly that ‘smarter’ money would get as close to the first step.of any process involved in providing or producing those things, as possible.
… such is the logic of capitalism at least as I see it, which also kind of means we are defacto accelerating the ‘cyberpunk dystopia-fication’ / ‘techno-neofeudalism’ thing, where any person or entity that more or less owns these kinds of companies… they become sort of like hegemonic guilds that states have to basically negotiate with as either equals or lessers.
Corporate Wars, here we come.
A lot of it will get moved into physical assets like property. There’s also been a huge investment boom in HK because people are realizing Chinese economy is more stable now. Similar situation with Singapore since Asia is expected to be doing better than the west thanks to China being the stabilizing force there.
China is making so many moves right now, to set themselves up as a viable alternative to the the USD… they’re doing some pretty serious amounts of gold hording (yes literally), and also seem to be setting up a rather extensive and robust system that would facilitate actual physical gold clearing…
The US on the other hand is also … there are at least rumors of basically gold backed 50 year bonds.
https://talkmarkets.com/article/the-united-states-and-the-50-year-gold-bond-that-could-rewrite-the-rules-of-global-finance-1782459667
… and Europe is at the very least basically pulling all their gold that is physically held in the US, back to their countries, repatriating it.
The fundamental structure and paradigm of the PetroDollar/Euro/Yen is now… basically breaking up, and at least right now, in the uncertain interim… it looks like everybody is taking inventory of their gold, and trying to figure out how to reposition their currency/bond/trade systems around being more directly backed by gold.
How this will actually shake out… what the new equilibrium will be… multipolar world, or new global hegemon… or something in between and more complicated… basically impossible to say, but things are changing dramatically.
that’s also likely a good defense against stagflation, which the USD (and probably the EUR) are likely to see soon
Exactly, the rich can see crashes coming early, so they pull out of liquidity to protect their assets. As a bonus, when the crash happens, they can swoop in and buy up the assets others are forced to let go on the cheap. So, each crisis ends up acting as a black Friday for billionaires and a massive wealth transfer to the top.