Picture humanity in a boat being swept down a raging river, praying there is no Niagara Falls ahead. Or imagine standing with the pioneering physicists in 1942 before they triggered the first self-sustaining nuclear fission chain reaction beneath a Chicago stadium.
These were two of the analogies used this week by Prof Robert Trager, an expert in the nascent field of AI governance, to describe the perilous but potential-filled moment the world stands at with accelerating artificial intelligence.
Trager, the director of the Oxford Martin AI Governance Initiative, was speaking in the week OpenAI claimed the technology had crossed the threshold known as AGI – artificial general intelligence – with its newest model, GPT-6 Astra.
That claim came as the company prepared for a potential $850bn (£630bn) stock flotation, so included a dose of marketing spin, but if true it may be significant. The San Francisco company defines AGI as “autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work”.
The tasks it claims Astra can automate include designing circuit boards, filling out tax returns, building video games, financial modelling, engineering design and helping assemble legal documents. The threat to some white-collar jobs is implicit.
These statistical models are not capable of that. They are capable of self reinforcing s feedback loop of looking malicious but it’s ultimately just how the numbers align and has nothing to do with actual intent.