Is this similar to the Dot.Com bubble burst?
Also like the 2008 housing crash.
I think we’re getting close to a pop.
People always say that, never happens
??
I’ve been hearing that since LLMs started gaining popularity. Doesn’t seem any closer today than, say, 2 years ago. But someone always makes this comment.
I’ve also been expecting a general stock market crash for a decade+. Somehow still hasn’t happened.
Steve Eisman has entered the chat
Pin incoming…
My youtube algorthim is filled with AI-skeptics (Eli the Computer guy, Ed Zitron, Prof G Markets) so this has been the slowest car crash I’ve ever gotten to watch happen. If Donald had actually focused on inflation all of these debt-sensitive AI plays could’ve continued to whistle through the graveyard. The skeptics have called out coreweave as being potentially the first domino to topple and their 6 year debt is trading at 15% right now. Thanks to plummeting token costs, they need to double their token sales every 90 days.
Stop using YouTube. The algorithm is not good for your mental health, nor to learn anything of substance.
I don’t use the algorithm
I would love it if people just did the bare basics and posted to multiple sites but they refuse to.
I mean, maybe they do with shorts + Tiktok or some of that shit
The algorithm is dog ass. YouTube is still full of plenty smart people with something to say, though. It’s a video sharing platform; that doesn’t inherently mean every content creator who uses it is also dog ass.
I watch more perfect union and the good liars. They’re not good at pointing out major issues? They bring receipts.
Ignore pretty much anything farming related from More Perfect Union - they tend to provide farm lobby propaganda without actually fact checking it. I’ve become much more sceptical of their other coverage based on how bad that segment of it seems to be.
I have to second that, yeah, YouTube’s Algo is insidious and drives my binge-watching, but I’ve been able to curate a subscription list of solid content creators.
Each one of the content creators ais subject to the same forces that the algorithm creates. No matter where you start, the content plus the algorithm slowly pushes you as well as the content creators into one direction. It may be a weak force, but it’s always there. content creators who want to grow their views do not have the liberty to evade it.
The direction is always towards divisive positions and decreasingly evidence based arguments, generally anti institutional, anti science, anti journalistic media.
YouTube as a feed is poison for a healthy mindset.
It’s true, disable YouTube feed and only look at subscription.
You can do it at https://myactivity.google.com/myactivity
Sounds like movable mortgage debt from 2008
The part nobody prices in is the stranded-asset scenario. These underwritings assume a demand curve that keeps rising for a decade. If inference efficiency improves the way training efficiency did — and there’s real pressure in that direction now — a lot of this capacity gets repriced hard.
The bank behavior is the tell: debt that gets packaged and sold on right after underwriting is the classic ‘we have concerns but we’re not holding the bag’ move.
I would say there are definite advances for inference. Custom backends built by AI for specific models, such as Strata, makes efficient leveraging of hardware much easier. Engrams, such as those in Qwen Next-Flash, allows for using more parameters via SSD, rather than memory alone.
These and other things over the past few years have allowed me to use bigger models, faster. Given another year of such progress, I think the value of subscribing to big American companies would start drying up.
Banks are in the business of underwriting debt and reselling it to private investors.
We’ve been reading this “End is Near” shit since COVID. Put something more on the table.
Owning a debt from the AI industry is a fairly insane amount of risk
Is it? They’ve been outperforming every other debt class for five years running.
Do you think they can maintain that for another 5 years? Another 20? Is the product AI companies providing worth the valuations?
Are 5 AI companies providing more value than every other tech company in the last 50 years? Thats what the valuations are trying to say. Im still waiting on ChatGPT to cure cancer.
I don’t see it happening; Copilot was a failed proof of concept that crippled the Windows ecosystem and permanently tarnished Microslop’s reputation as the premier operating-system developer; the Linux community doesn’t openly embrace AI much at all, and gamers couldn’t care less about it… All the LLM services have been running at a consistent loss/debt, and CoreWeave is propped up by the only 2 companies that couldn’t even successfully launch a finished product. They need to cut their losses and pack it in; call it a day!
Do you think they can maintain that for another 5 years? Another 20?
I think expecting NVIDIA to fail inside the next five years is a wild reach. You might expect Oracle to take haircut in the next five years, based on their atrocious debt load. But even then, the idea that they’ll miss a credit payment?
Twenty years out, these firms are an even safer bet. Long term demand for compute and hosting services is only going up. And they’re so heavily consolidated. Too Big To Fail in every sense of the word. Are you going to bet against JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs on the eve of the financial crisis, even? Twenty years later, how are they doing?
Are 5 AI companies providing more value than every other tech company in the last 50 years?
It’s not a question of value, it’s a question of earnings growth. Will these top 5 AI companies be seeing stratospheric earnings growth in the next ten years? All signs point to “Yes”. The race to cement these data center footprints is a scramble for limited resources. The Capex budgets won’t be inflated to this degree forever.
Dismissing them for their rapid expansion would be like betting against New York and Chicago real estate markets because you didn’t trust skyscrapers to be profitable in another 20 years. Or betting against U.S. Steel and Standard Oil at the apex of WW2, because the resource demand from the conflict can’t go on forever.
I’m not saying they will fail I’m saying they will not maintain their rate of growth. Very, very different things but i guess you can pretend i said something else and argue against that or whatever idk dude lol
I’m not saying they will fail I’m saying they will not maintain their rate of growth.
They’ll hit a saturation point eventually, sure. But demand for capacity continues to outstrip supply.
So did .com in the early 00’s and houses in the late 00’s
If you bought into Microsoft in '01 and have owned a REIT since '07, you’ve made oodles of money.
I’d argue that Microsoft really didn’t do anything .com-ish. Amazon would have been a better choice for your argument.
And noone’s arguing that no companies flourished during those years. Just that a fuckton of them drug the market back to hell with their overpriced evaluations. (people laying fiber and buying 1.2M sock puppet ads in the super bowl)
I’d argue that Microsoft really didn’t do anything .com-ish.
They’ve been the pack leader in the tech sector for decades.
And noone’s arguing that no companies flourished during those years.
The MAG7 have been outperforming the rest of the market since COVID, often by 5+%
This is very different than betting on some small cap IPOs
They’ve been the pack leader in the tech sector for decades.
So what did they do that was crazy long bad bet .com? Them existing in the .com days leaves nothing to the discussion at hand.
Amazon was at least standing up storefronts and cloud at that point.
The MAG7 have been outperforming the rest of the market since COVID, often by 5+%
What does this have to do with Tech bubble vs AI bubble? Are you interested in being on topic or just arguing?
What about pets.com?
In the end, Chewy.com was the better investment.
Do you have any statistics?
Ooo I know this one! I won’t give out any spoilers.
Apparently they’ve spent 10 trillion in commitments that soan to 2032… And have to get AI earning to 3 trillion a year to avoid a crash.
…and there’s 8 billion people on earth. So I assume they’re hoping for some lucrative corporate/government contracts and bailouts.
So how would a (by now inevitable) government bailout not trigger an untenable treasury yield?
Quantitative easing.
The same shit that put us right here after the GFC
Print more money lol, although that’s sometimes referred to as a “soft default”
that’s kinda illegal, isn’t it?
Free enterprise, privatize profits, socialize the losses
Is the bailout going to be because of national security or is it going to be a to big to fail situation.
If they get a bailout, are we ready to drag recipient ghouls through the streets?
Well now, that looks familiar. Rats leaving a sinking ship.
The thing is the boat was very clearly going down when they got on.
Everyone knew it was a pyramid scheme from the start they just thought there were at the top of the pyramid and now they’re worried because it looks like they’re a little further down than that so they’re trying to minimize their losses.
the boat has cheese, and as long as you get off before it sinks too much you come out ahead.
I’d love it if it was packaged up into securities and credit rating agencies gave those securities an A+++ would buy again rating so my wallstreet-managed 401k knows where to steal my money.
I HATE this part. I have no power to just not invest, because Vanguard or whoever owns the portfolio and they think this stuff is just going up-up-up, but they are playing with my money since I only have 4 flavors of their choosing for my 401k.
They might be right in the short term, and this used to be a thing (I think, in my parent’s age) where you could assume that number-goes-up over time and you could ignore minor dips, and maybe it’s still true for a long enough duration… but:
In this thread, I think we all see that this isn’t sustainable, but we, normal people just hoping to retire someday, don’t have the ability to disconnect from the bubble even if we want to. There are too many public companies involved and they’re all interconnected.
I despise that I’m probably invested in spacex, nvidia, oracle, etc. I’d sacrifice short term gains to let other people take this risk if I could.
It’s about time for the ultra-wealthy to create another 2007 so they can wrench the last bits of wealth off anyone who isn’t already a $100Ms-billionaire.
That has been the plan since the oligarchs took off their masks.
It’s happening!!! Bubble pop is happening!!! article is underplaying it.
Coreweave debt pushed towards 16% yield today. The worst of the AI clusterfuck. Oracle, 2nd worse, move to 8% which is still absurdly low, but was holding 6% a week ago.
Main headline, yes the big banks are selling off debt to losertards. At a discount. Insurance companies are the losertards chasing yield, but have big losses today.
Nvidia, the circular financing backstop for the bubble, signaled today that it is just waiting for bankruptcies to swoop in instead of propping up the fraud. Bond/share holders will get crushed, and bubble dead, but still Nvidia will drive rampocalypse if the datacenters are still alllowed.
If they bubble can take down oracle on the way out I suppose it will have been worth the cost of entry.
yep, adding in open AI’s oopsie accounting - https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2026/oct/09/openai-forecast-revenue-gap
burst, baby, burst!
