Alt text: A line plot with 2 axis (confidence vs competence) referencing the Dunning-Kruger effect with various distro logos placed at different points on the line. Starts with mint/ubuntu near (0,0) and progressing through multiple distros to end up with opensuse/fedora at what it calls “the plateau of sustainability”
I think it’s the gartner hype cycle, which usually uses the same labels as the meme
Except they changed the axis to plot confidence vs competence so arguably indeed relating to the Dunning-Kruger effect, not Expectations vs Time as the Gartner hype cycle does. Same shape and steps but different idea.