Transcript

Title text: This is how you all fucking sound

[A smug tech bro wearing a sideways cap, watch, chain around his neck stands in front of a data center by a lake with dead fish. A smoke stack blows pollution into the air]

Tech bro: AI is already here, there’s no going back.

[A smug man in a suit with cigarette in hand stands in a restaurant while two disgruntled diners cough from the smoke]

Suit: Smoking indoors is already here, there’s no going back.

[A smug man in a top hat and suit stands in a factory with two sad and dirty children]

Hat: Child labor is already here, there’s no going back.

[A smug plantation owner stands in front of a field with with two angry slaves]

Plantation owner: The Atlantic Slave trade is already here, there’s no going back.

Still Vreni on Bluesky

  • 9point6@lemmy.world
    2·
    16 hours ago

    Making a better LLM isn’t the point of all this, it’s taking what they have and building on it until they create a true AGI.

    Whoever gets there first, makes basically everything else obsolete in an instant.

    In a world where the organisations that are blazing the trail are in private hands, this is very bad news for everyone who isn’t in the winning organisation.

    That’s essentially the arms race: who gets to be king of the world.

    The slim chance of it not being monumentally detrimental to humanity is basically tied to us abandoning capitalism wholesale and uniting the world, so I’m not holding my breath.

    Edit: few downvotes on this, so check my other replies for clarity, if you still think I’m taking out my arse, comment and set me right. It’s Lemmy, the points don’t matter, I’d rather have a conversation. Plus read again if you somehow get the impression I’m advocating for any of this

    • pinball_wizard@lemmy.zip
      10·
      20 hours ago

      Whoever gets there first, makes basically everything else obsolete in an instant.

      TechBros repeat this constantly, but it just isn’t true.

      Plenty of second-on-the-scene solutions have emerged as most popular, or most impactful.

      But Tech Bros need the fear of missing out (fear of arriving second) to justify huge investments with no worthwhile results.

      • 9point6@lemmy.world
        1·
        17 hours ago

        I’m answering the question of what the arms race is

        The goal is a technology that replaces the need for humans in any job.

        The FOMO is different now because they don’t give a shit about the consumer. The FOMO is versus the other competitors because it’s a winner takes all scenario.

        They will keep accelerating to the detriment of literally everything else.

        Whether you believe they’ll make it is almost moot. They’re going to burn the world down trying.

    • ThisSeriesIsFalse@lemmy.caEnglish
      18·
      23 hours ago

      Nobody’s making AGI anytime soon. LLMs do not have any of the baselines required for this. They’re expensive predictive text algorithms, more or less the same ones used in mobile keyboards, but upscaled to an absurd degree. Anyone truly worried about other companies or nations developing AGI has no idea how our current “AI” works. You’re never going to get there by building on them.

      • 9point6@lemmy.world
        3·
        22 hours ago

        I’d like to believe too, but it doesn’t really track when you watch what these companies are actually doing.

        Of course an LLM on its own isn’t going to become an AGI. Anyone with a braincell can see that. These orgs aren’t so high on their own farts that they ignore this.

        Nearly all of the actual uses today aren’t just the LLM, but the tooling built on top of it, the LLM is the bit that you can plug into the past century of computing developments to enable much greater autonomy.

        It’s true to say an LLM in isolation isn’t going to become AGI, but it’s also looking very likely that an AGI will feature an LLM as a key component.

        That’s what’s happening in parallel to the model development, tooling and harnesses that make the overall system more capable. If it can be done by a computer (or by extension a sufficiently advanced robot), the LLM can do it too with a bit of integration work (which it is very able to do on its own today, with minimal steering). If you can test for something being correct in any way, that too can be ultimately hooked up to an LLM as another input to push it back onto the desired path when it veers off.

        Frankly I’m starting to feel like for most people it’ll feel like it’s years off until the day it happens. I don’t see remotely enough people taking the risk seriously in time to do anything.

        • pinball_wizard@lemmy.zip
          3·
          17 hours ago

          These orgs aren’t so high on their own farts that they ignore this.

          You make some interesting points.

          But…the vast majority of corporate decision making for the last ten years is solid evidence that they are 100% high on their own farts.

          LLM is the bit that you can plug into the past century of computing developments to enable much greater autonomy.

          Interesting point. But the folks giving these things autonomy are mostly just creating huge messes, right now, and then claiming victory and taking a quick bow before the stage caves in.

          The places we do see success are where no human could be patient enough - which is the stuff computers were already better at, than us.

          As you point out, all that can be fixed.

          But it’s all already not worth the money invested, before they build dozens more data centers in the hope that they can fix it. There’s just massive amounts of magic thinking going on, by investors.

          I do agree with your point that there’s probably somethings that are useful and some that are dangerous on the other side of this.

          • 9point6@lemmy.world
            1·
            17 hours ago

            But…the vast majority of corporate decision making for the last ten years is solid evidence that they are 100% high on their own farts.

            Completely agree, but in the gap left by “vast majority”, these guys don’t seem to be behaving entirely like your conventional consumer squeezing companies, they seem to be playing a much more collusive game at the very least

            But it’s all already not worth the money invested

            That’s the flaw in the common view of this. You’re looking too short term. The second someone can offer to replace a business owners employees for half price, it’s basically infinite money.

            That is what they’re pouring all the money in for: a chance at that prize. A chance at replacing all paid work with an automation they own.

        • fizzle@quokk.auEnglish
          2·
          18 hours ago

          It’s true to say an LLM in isolation isn’t going to become AGI, but it’s also looking very likely that an AGI will feature an LLM as a key component.

          Wheels are a key component of my car I guess.

          • 9point6@lemmy.world
            1·
            17 hours ago

            You know what, that’s actually a very good example.

            The wheels are the interface between the engine and any kind of° surface, with no prior knowledge of those surfaces

            We’ve got an engine of basically everything that followed the industrial revolution until now.

            An LLM can very much function as the wheel to marry a surface to that engine.

            °Horizontal, don’t be a smart ass

            • fizzle@quokk.auEnglish
              2·
              13 hours ago

              LOL.

              In my “analogy” you just invented all of the actual complexity of the car in the same hand wavy way you claim AGI will just coalesce from the ether.