I also hate leaving things to chance.

But that’s a security bias. If you were more prone to risk taking, you’d be doing the opposite even if the payout was - say - $150k. Or even $75k.

And then I think that if I were to take the guaranteed sum, I’d end up lying awake at night wondering what could have been if I’d gone with the 10 million and won the coin toss.

This all seems to boil down to psychological impact rather than material benefit.