You see the expected value fallacy thing pop up in real life when the lottery hits big digits. “Did you hear? The jackpot is over $1 billion! Let’s go buy tickets.”
Let’s be real, after $100 million, or honestly even $10 million, increasing the jackpot doesn’t change how much effect that money has on your life very much. At that point, likelihood is a lot more important.
But every time the jackpot peaks, it’s like all of these intelligent, thoughtful people around me lose their ability for rational thought. Why would you buy a lottery ticket now, but not when the jackpot was $500 million a month ago?
You see the expected value fallacy thing pop up in real life when the lottery hits big digits. “Did you hear? The jackpot is over $1 billion! Let’s go buy tickets.”
Let’s be real, after $100 million, or honestly even $10 million, increasing the jackpot doesn’t change how much effect that money has on your life very much. At that point, likelihood is a lot more important.
But every time the jackpot peaks, it’s like all of these intelligent, thoughtful people around me lose their ability for rational thought. Why would you buy a lottery ticket now, but not when the jackpot was $500 million a month ago?