If I had to make a guess, I say it probably will. The convenience of AI is probably here to stay, but the craze of replacing everything with AI will go out the door.
AI will become exactly what it should have been in the first place: an assistant. Not your friend, not your doctor, not your therapist, not a replacement for artists/authors/programmers, and not inside every piece of tech post 2025. It has a place. That place is over-embellished right now, not to mention unsustainable.
It will definitely burst, and might take out some fairly large companies with it. Potentially even one or two tech companies that have been around for decades depending on how large it gets before that burst. One or two companies will end up with the IP all of them are “building” and it will fizzle into the background of daily use just like the previous assistants like Alexa, Cortana, etc. have.
I am having trouble seeing how OpenAI survives without investment cash. What exactly is their moat? I know they are hoping to power the AI behind everyone else’s tech but that is more and more untenable as the others develop AI models of their own.
Nah, they already converted all their business clients to recurring revenue and are, relatively, not very exposed to the LLM thing. Sure they will have overspent a bit on datacenters and nVidia gear, but they continue to basically have most of global business solidly giving them money continuously to keep Office and Azure.
In terms of longer term tech companies that could be under existential threat, I’d put Supermicro in there. They are a long term fixture in the market that was generally pretty modest and had a bit of a boost from the hyperscalers as ‘cloud’ took off, but frankly a lot of industry folks were not sure exactly how Supermicro was getting the business results they reported while doing the things they were doing. Then AI bubble pulled them up hard and was a double edged sword as the extra scrutiny seemingly revealed the answer was dubious accounting all along. The finding would have been enough to just destroy their company, except they were ‘in’ on AI enough to be buoyed above the catastrophe.
A longer stretch, but nVidia might have some struggles. The AI boom has driven their market cap about 5000%. They’ve largely redefined most of their company to be LLM centric, with other use cases left having to make the most of whatever they do for LLM. How will their stakeholders react to a huge drop from the most important company on earth to a respectable but modest vendor of stuff for graphics? How strong is the appetite for GPU when the visual results aren’t really that much more striking than they were 3 generations of hardware back?
Microsoft already had a proven business model and established products and services before the AI boom. If a company goes under it would almost certainly be one focused almost entirely on AI such as Palantir.
Yeah, but can they handle the collapse of going back to the company before the AI boom? They’ve increased in market cap 5000%, attracted a lot of stakeholders that never would have bothered with nVidia if not for the LLM boom. If LLM pops, then will nVidia survive with their new set of stakeholders that didn’t sign up for a ‘mere graphics company’?
They’ve reshaped their entire product strategy to be LLM focused. Who knows what the demand is for their current products without the LLM bump. Discrete GPUs were becoming increasingly niche since ‘good enough’ integrated GPUs kind of were denting their market.
They could survive a pop, but they may not have the right backers to do so anymore…
From a quick look they have ~40B USD in liabilities and make ~115B USD gross profit. Being able to pay off the entirety of their debt with 4 months of profit seems pretty healthy to me.
Cool, in a not super cool way. Nvidia is kinda scummy but the work they do is valuable. I appreciate you dropping the facts on me, but im not sure how to feel about them.
I’m not a fan of them either, I wish AMD would step up and compete with them better (Just get ROCm into a good place FFS!), but they are definitely not one of the companies most exposed to an AI pop. They’ll stop being insanely profitable but they are not anywhere near the position of openAI and the likes who have massive negative profit.
Agreed. Probably where it should have stayed in the first place. Not that its not interesting, just that the scope of AI has widened beyond what it should have.
If I had to make a guess, I say it probably will. The convenience of AI is probably here to stay, but the craze of replacing everything with AI will go out the door.
AI will become exactly what it should have been in the first place: an assistant. Not your friend, not your doctor, not your therapist, not a replacement for artists/authors/programmers, and not inside every piece of tech post 2025. It has a place. That place is over-embellished right now, not to mention unsustainable.
Just a reminder that the term “AI” stands for a category of systems that contains a lot more than just LLMs.
Sir, this is the stock market.
People order with their feelings, not facts.
True, true. In this context I mean the LLM craze. The GPU era of AI.
It will definitely burst, and might take out some fairly large companies with it. Potentially even one or two tech companies that have been around for decades depending on how large it gets before that burst. One or two companies will end up with the IP all of them are “building” and it will fizzle into the background of daily use just like the previous assistants like Alexa, Cortana, etc. have.
I am having trouble seeing how OpenAI survives without investment cash. What exactly is their moat? I know they are hoping to power the AI behind everyone else’s tech but that is more and more untenable as the others develop AI models of their own.
Depends on when the bust happens. If its in the current admin? All those tech companies are getting bailed out.
Please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft.
Nah, they already converted all their business clients to recurring revenue and are, relatively, not very exposed to the LLM thing. Sure they will have overspent a bit on datacenters and nVidia gear, but they continue to basically have most of global business solidly giving them money continuously to keep Office and Azure.
In terms of longer term tech companies that could be under existential threat, I’d put Supermicro in there. They are a long term fixture in the market that was generally pretty modest and had a bit of a boost from the hyperscalers as ‘cloud’ took off, but frankly a lot of industry folks were not sure exactly how Supermicro was getting the business results they reported while doing the things they were doing. Then AI bubble pulled them up hard and was a double edged sword as the extra scrutiny seemingly revealed the answer was dubious accounting all along. The finding would have been enough to just destroy their company, except they were ‘in’ on AI enough to be buoyed above the catastrophe.
A longer stretch, but nVidia might have some struggles. The AI boom has driven their market cap about 5000%. They’ve largely redefined most of their company to be LLM centric, with other use cases left having to make the most of whatever they do for LLM. How will their stakeholders react to a huge drop from the most important company on earth to a respectable but modest vendor of stuff for graphics? How strong is the appetite for GPU when the visual results aren’t really that much more striking than they were 3 generations of hardware back?
Microsoft already had a proven business model and established products and services before the AI boom. If a company goes under it would almost certainly be one focused almost entirely on AI such as Palantir.
Lol, Palantir isn’t going anywhere.
And the AI bust will hit primarily generative AI, and Palantir does things a bit differently.
agreed palantir is on the government tit
if boeing fuckups can kill people palantir is not foing anywhere
Itll be
nvidia andopenai primarily, id have to imagineIt wont be Nvidia unless they play things incredibly badly, they’re the only ones making actual profit by selling shovels in the goldrush.
Yeah, but can they handle the collapse of going back to the company before the AI boom? They’ve increased in market cap 5000%, attracted a lot of stakeholders that never would have bothered with nVidia if not for the LLM boom. If LLM pops, then will nVidia survive with their new set of stakeholders that didn’t sign up for a ‘mere graphics company’?
They’ve reshaped their entire product strategy to be LLM focused. Who knows what the demand is for their current products without the LLM bump. Discrete GPUs were becoming increasingly niche since ‘good enough’ integrated GPUs kind of were denting their market.
They could survive a pop, but they may not have the right backers to do so anymore…
Yeah, but dont they also have the largest promisory debt? Havent they loaned the most most money that they dont actually have?
From a quick look they have ~40B USD in liabilities and make ~115B USD gross profit. Being able to pay off the entirety of their debt with 4 months of profit seems pretty healthy to me.
Cool, in a not super cool way. Nvidia is kinda scummy but the work they do is valuable. I appreciate you dropping the facts on me, but im not sure how to feel about them.
I’m not a fan of them either, I wish AMD would step up and compete with them better (Just get ROCm into a good place FFS!), but they are definitely not one of the companies most exposed to an AI pop. They’ll stop being insanely profitable but they are not anywhere near the position of openAI and the likes who have massive negative profit.
Agreed. Probably where it should have stayed in the first place. Not that its not interesting, just that the scope of AI has widened beyond what it should have.
Dotcom groundhog day for the tech sector.